500 Deer Creek Rd · Havana, FL 32333

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2005 0.42 ac lot $129/sqft · 32% below area Est $222k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom two bathroom manufactured home with carport and 10x14 shed offered as is. The home a deck on the side, a master bedroom walk in shower. The home sits on a larger triangular lot.

Key facts

• Deck on the side
• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• DECK ON THE SIDE
• MASTER BEDROOM WALK IN SHOWER
• LARGER TRIANGULAR LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.1% in Havana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#272 in FL, #4,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #70 of 73 in FL (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Gadsden County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gadsden County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $150k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,835
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -32.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Carol Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+5%)	7mo	$224,000	$184	61
80 Deer Creek Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	17mo	$130,000	$100	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,113
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,459
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32333

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $159,900 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Three bedroom two bathroom manufactured home with carport and 10x14 shed offered as is. The home a deck on the side, a master bedroom walk in shower. The home sits on a larger triangular lot.

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $169,000 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Three bedroom two bathroom manufactured home with carport and 10x14 shed offered as is. The home a deck on the side, a master bedroom walk in shower. The home sits on a larger triangular lot.

19. 2010-01-29
    soldstatus $68,995 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great shape still under warranty till 2012. 2 decks, pave driveway with covered carport, large shed, and partially fenced

20. 2010-01-01
    listed $79,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great shape still under warranty till 2012. 2 decks, pave driveway with covered carport, large shed, and partially fenced

21. 2005-11-28
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden
• NCES district ID: 1200600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,470
• Composite: 25.75/100
• National rank: #7373
• State rank: #70 of 73 in FL

Livability — Havana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #4420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,379

Population outlook (Gadsden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,956 people
• By 2030: 40,878 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,218 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,502 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 21,828 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 14,480 · -66.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Gadsden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 65.0% · R 34.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+36.6 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+40.6 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.83%
• Current HPI: 155.9185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+515.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $159,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $169,000 CPARMLS
• 2010-01-29 Sold (MLS) $68,995 CATRS
• 2010-01-01 Listed $79,000 CATRS
• 2005-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +109.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.