2011 N Eugene Dr · Lazy Mountain, AK 99645

$259,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,318 sqft · Other public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1956 0.82 ac lot $112/sqft · 55% below area Est $380k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home is Nestled at the foot of Lazy Mountain, a stone's throw from the magnificent Matanuska River. This is a 2-bedroom 1 bath home with 215ft of Old Glenn Hwy frontage in an unrestricted use area. It has an 804 sq ft deep basement and comes with two separate lots totaling . 82 acres. The location is unbeatable with a plethora of nearby trails, lakes, mountains and recreation. Ferns, flowers and trees encompass the entire property in the summer. Check out the Videos! This homestead features a private well, electric, natural gas, back patio, bonus family areas, sauna & storage sheds. 5 minutes from downtown, part of Palmers past & its growing future. This property n

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Sewer: crib
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Block, concrete, log and wood frame construction; Slab foundation; Built in 1956; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Road service area access; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Basement; Electric service; Fireplace; Sauna; Telephone service
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#87 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, housing A-; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Butte Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 274 students, 43% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Palmer High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 760 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,801 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,561
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -31.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,040
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-51,920
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99645

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $240,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-33	+0% $-107	+5% $-181	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-180	+0% $-107	+5% $-34	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-41	base $-107	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $259,900 Active 804-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$925/yr (+$77/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Lazy Mountain

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #19344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lazy Mountain, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 31,494
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 32,103
• Household income: $100,455
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.20%
• Current HPI: 210.5448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $259,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $1,244 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.