4554 Carlton Golf Dr · Wellington, FL 33449

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1994 5,049 sqft lot $1155/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is located within Wycliffe Golf & Country Club, a private country club community offering an exceptional lifestyle and an impressive array of amenities. Residents enjoy access to two championship 18-hole golf courses, a recently completed $18+ million clubhouse renovation, multiple on-site dining venues, a full-service spa, a state-of-the-art fitness center, an Olympic-size swimming pool with expansive sun deck, Har-Tru tennis courts, and new pickleball courts, along with a vibrant year-round social calendar. Wycliffe features fourteen distinct sub-communities, each offering its own architectural style and atmosphere, with a wide range of residences from thoughtfully designe

Key facts

• 5,049 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Panther Run Elementary School (math 85% / reading 82%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 787 students, 19% FRL); Polo Park Middle School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,156 students, 33% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $390k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $390,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-12,804
• Equity at exit: $100,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $42,076
• Equity at exit: $110,589

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33449

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$1,155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$966
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,396

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $272	+0% $161	+5% $51	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-21	+0% $161	+5% $343	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $260	base $161	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4528 Barclay Fair Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2147	$8,000	$3.73	0d	1	0.11mi
4553 Barclay Fair Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	3.0	2278	$4,000	$1.76	18d	1	0.18mi
4553 Barclay Fair Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	3.0	2278	$4,000	$1.76	25d	1	0.18mi
10173 Andover Coach Cir Unit G2 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1807	$3,500	$1.94	25d	1	0.23mi
10303 Andover Coach Cir Unit A1 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$5,500	$3.87	25d	1	0.24mi
4841 Exeter Estate Ln Lake Worth, FL	3.0	3.0	2567	$5,000	$1.95	25d	1	0.26mi
4173 Imperial Club Ln Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1989	$2,995	$1.51	20d	1	0.88mi
9855 Herons Nest Ct Lake Worth, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,510	$2.45	3d	7	0.97mi
11065 Stone Creek St Wellington, FL	4.0	2.5	2478	$4,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.98mi
10415 Saint Germain Ct Wellington, FL	4.0	3.5	2469	$6,500	$2.63	4d	1	1.00mi
10415 Saint Germain Ct Wellington, FL	4.0	3.5	2469	$6,500	$2.63	23d	1	1.00mi
10139 Wellington Parc Dr Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.0	2076	$3,795	$1.83	4d	1	1.00mi
10283 Wellington Parc Dr Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.0	2076	$3,600	$1.73	25d	1	1.03mi
10385 Wellington Parc Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1783	$3,250	$1.82	21d	1	1.05mi
10457 Wellington Parc Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$3,200	$1.90	25d	1	1.06mi
3470 Custer Ave Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$4,500	$2.21	25d	1	1.06mi
10348 Wellington Parc Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	2060	$3,300	$1.60	25d	1	1.08mi
10426 Wellington Parc Dr Unit 1 Wellington, FL	4.0	2.5	2587	$3,650	$1.41	25d	1	1.08mi
10450 Wellington Parc Dr Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$3,350	$1.69	25d	1	1.09mi
3366 Harness Cir Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2340	$3,750	$1.60	12d	1	1.12mi
11137 Grandview Mnr Wellington, FL	4.0	3.0	2194	$9,500	$4.33	18d	1	1.14mi
10372 Old Winston Ct Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,395	$1.89	9d	1	1.21mi
4790 Navali Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1708	$3,200	$1.87	25d	1	1.23mi
4839 Navali Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	2124	$3,300	$1.55	25d	1	1.23mi
9006 Zevon Ct Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$3,300	$1.62	25d	1	1.24mi
3306 Fargo Ave Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2370	$5,500	$2.32	25d	1	1.24mi
4194 Bluff Harbor Way Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	2152	$3,999	$1.86	0d	1	1.29mi
8985 Gulf Run Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	2049	$3,400	$1.66	0d	1	1.30mi
4178 Bluff Harbor Way Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1904	$3,800	$2.00	25d	1	1.30mi
8951 Kingsmoor Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$3,500	$1.82	6d	1	1.32mi
4018 Bluff Harbor Way Wellington, FL	4.0	2.5	2160	$4,300	$1.99	9d	1	1.32mi
9108 Kingsmoor Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$3,400	$1.77	12d	1	1.33mi
8914 Kingsmoor Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2019	$4,500	$2.23	25d	1	1.37mi
8914 Kingsmoor Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	2019	$4,500	$2.23	12d	1	1.37mi
8883 Kingsmoor Way Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1997	$4,225	$2.12	12d	1	1.40mi
4985 Navali Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$3,050	$1.90	3d	1	1.41mi
10567 Paso Fino Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,950	$2.39	25d	1	1.42mi
10591 Paso Fino Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$3,500	$1.98	6d	1	1.44mi
8807 Antarus Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1954	$3,700	$1.89	16d	1	1.46mi
8807 Antarus Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1954	$3,700	$1.89	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,155 · $13,860/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-30
   historical
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $390,000
3. 2016-11-17
   soldstatus $90,000
4. 2016-10-31
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed
5. 2016-09-30
   status Pending
6. 2016-08-04
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2015-09-27
   historical
8. 2014-09-27
   listed $175,000 Active
9. 2008-11-19
   soldstatus $210,000
10. 2008-11-18
    soldstatus $210,000
11. 2008-09-22
    historical
12. 2007-03-21
    listed $239,000
13. 2003-06-03
    soldstatus $197,500
14. 2003-05-28
    soldstatus $197,500
15. 2003-04-29
    historical
16. 2003-03-18
    listed $204,000
17. 1994-08-04
    soldstatus $170,000
18. 1992-11-06
    soldstatus $3,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,237 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,917/yr (+$160/mo · 145.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,416
• − Management: −$4,416
• − HOA: −$13,860
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $2,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 60,184
• Population (ZIP): 9,131

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 4% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 271.0184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-87.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $390,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-09-30 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2016-08-04 Listed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-09-27 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-09-27 Listed $175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2008-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-18 Sold (MLS) $210,000 Beaches MLS
• 2008-09-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2007-03-21 Listed $239,000 Beaches MLS
• 2003-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2003-05-28 Sold (MLS) $197,500 Beaches MLS
• 2003-04-29 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2003-03-18 Listed $204,000 Beaches MLS
• 1994-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $3,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,320 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.