14210 Croghan · Shirley, PA 17066

$59,900

4 bd · None ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1930 7,405 sqft lot $30/sqft · 42% below area Est $102k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-UNIT THAT HAS STARTED RENOVATION, OWNER IS WORKING ON THE PAINTING AND IS GOING TO RE-CARPET EACH UNIT. BOTH ARE ONE BEDROOM UNITS ONE UP/DOWN. PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY VACANT AND ELECTRICITY IS TURNED OF. PLEASE SHOW DURING THE DAY. ALSO WORKING ON THE STAIRS TO THE SECOND FLOOR, PLEASE BE VERY CAREFULL ON THE OUTSIDE STEPS LEADING TO SECOND FLOOR. BOARDS ARE LOOSE UNTIL THEY GET CORRECTED. THERE IS A SECOND STAIRWAY INSIDE. ONLY ONE ELECTRIC METER CURRENTLY.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 101 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Union Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #462 of 539 in PA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $60k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.83%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,427
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -41.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Poplar St	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,698 (-14%)	13mo	$110,000	$65	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $68,090
• Equity at exit: $53,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.29×
• Total profit: $172,658
• Equity at exit: $116,373

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17066

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $783/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $574	+0% $557	+5% $540	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $461	-5% $509	+0% $557	+5% $605	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $572	base $557	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $59,900 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    2-UNIT THAT HAS STARTED RENOVATION, OWNER IS WORKING ON THE PAINTING AND IS GOING TO RE-CARPET EACH UNIT. BOTH ARE ONE BEDROOM UNITS ONE UP/DOWN. PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY VACANT AND ELECTRICITY IS TURNED OF. PLEASE SHOW DURING THE DAY. ALSO WORKING ON THE STAIRS TO THE SECOND FLOOR, PLEASE BE VERY CAREFULL ON THE OUTSIDE STEPS LEADING TO SECOND FLOOR. BOARDS ARE LOOSE UNTIL THEY GET CORRECTED. THERE IS A SECOND STAIRWAY INSIDE. ONLY ONE ELECTRIC METER CURRENTLY.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $69,900 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    2-UNIT THAT HAS STARTED RENOVATION, OWNER IS WORKING ON THE PAINTING AND IS GOING TO RE-CARPET EACH UNIT. BOTH ARE ONE BEDROOM UNITS ONE UP/DOWN. PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY VACANT AND ELECTRICITY IS TURNED OF. PLEASE SHOW DURING THE DAY. ALSO WORKING ON THE STAIRS TO THE SECOND FLOOR, PLEASE BE VERY CAREFULL ON THE OUTSIDE STEPS LEADING TO SECOND FLOOR. BOARDS ARE LOOSE UNTIL THEY GET CORRECTED. THERE IS A SECOND STAIRWAY INSIDE. ONLY ONE ELECTRIC METER CURRENTLY.

18. 2026-01-31
    historical
19. 2025-05-01
    listed $89,900 Active
20. 2025-02-28
    historical
21. 2024-09-02
    listed $99,900 Active
22. 2023-10-24
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
23. 2023-07-30
    status Pending
24. 2023-06-02
    listed $29,900 Active
25. 2004-01-23
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$783
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $6,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $5,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Union Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,561
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #8080
• State rank: #462 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shirley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allenport, PA
• Population (ZIP): 5,131

Population outlook (Huntingdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,212 people
• By 2030: 43,057 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 40,537 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 37,844 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 31,411 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 23,907 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huntingdon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.34%
• Current HPI: 173.1528
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+185.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-24 Sold (MLS) $25,000 HCBR
• 2023-07-30 Pending — HCBR
• 2023-06-02 Listed $29,900 HCBR
• 2004-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $783 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.