2521 Bay St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$52,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1940 6,534 sqft lot Est $63k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located off Bay and Witters. Offering convenient access to shopping, schools, workforce opportunities, mechanical services, and nearby highway connections. The home features a functional layout with two bedrooms and one full bath, with carpeted living spaces throughout. The kitchen has been updated with new cabinetry. Outside, the property includes vinyl siding, a new roof, a detached 1.5-car garage, and an additional storage shed for extra storage. Schedule your showing today to explore the potential this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Vinyl siding
• Updated cabinetry
• New roof

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• VINYL SIDING
• NEW ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 car)
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 132 (0.15 acres); No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $53k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Middle School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #479 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 397 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $53k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.19%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,448
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2512 Blake St	0.14mi	2/1.0	663 (+8%)	9mo	$74,000	$112	73
2600 Deindorfer St	0.08mi	2/1.0	702 (+14%)	8mo	$72,000	$103	66
1906 N Charles St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	684 (+11%)	10mo	$65,000	$95	35
1919 Weiss St	0.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	705 (+14%)	23mo	$61,800	$88	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $11,338
• Equity at exit: $7,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $38,095
• Equity at exit: $4,574

Cash invested: $14,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$277
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $491

Max offer price $52,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $314	+0% $299	+5% $284	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $264	+0% $299	+5% $333	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $312	base $299	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,225
• Closing costs: $1,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 647-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $52,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $52,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-04-16
    listed $52,900 Active
12. 2026-04-15
    listed $52,900 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Welcome to this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located off Bay and Witters. Offering convenient access to shopping, schools, workforce opportunities, mechanical services, and nearby highway connections. The home features a functional layout with two bedrooms and one full bath, with carpeted living spaces throughout. The kitchen has been updated with new cabinetry. Outside, the property includes vinyl siding, a new roof, a detached 1.5-car garage, and an additional storage shed for extra storage. Schedule your showing today to explore the potential this property has to offer.

13. 2019-08-01
    soldstatus $12,500 Sold 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

14. 2019-08-01
    soldstatus $12,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

15. 2019-07-26
    status Pending 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

16. 2019-07-26
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

17. 2019-07-23
    listed $20,000 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

18. 2019-07-23
    listed $20,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath house would make a fantastic rental. It is conveniently located next to shopping, work and the interstate. The home needs some TLC. Priced for quick sale! Call today.

19. 2000-09-19
    soldstatus $24,900
20. 2000-09-19
    soldstatus $24,900
21. 2000-08-07
    listed $24,900
22. 2000-08-07
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,963
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$835
• − Management: −$835
• − Depreciation: −$1,539
• Taxable income: $2,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$704
• After-tax cash flow: $2,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+112.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $52,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Listed $52,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-01 Sold (MLS) $12,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-01 Sold (MLS) $12,500 REALCOMP
• 2019-07-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-07-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-19 Sold (MLS) $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-19 Sold (MLS) $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-08-07 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-08-07 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.