21779 Markham · Mead Valley, CA 92570

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 0.46 ac lot $240/sqft · 26% below area Est $404k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good Size Vacant Lot With Utilities Waiting For A New Buyer. This Lot Is Rectangular In Shape And Measures 19,166 Sqft or . 44 Acres. Utilities Include: Water, Electricity and Gas. Located Less Than A Minute Away From A Neighborhood Market And A Few Minutes From Schools.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 1 unit on the parcel
• HOA & community: Urban community setting

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/district water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built: see remarks; No common walls
• Exterior features: Located on a parcel zoned/used for 0–1 unit per acre; Horse property; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Single-level home (one story); All bedrooms on main level; Main level entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Mead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#1,381 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Val Verde Unified (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #820 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 444% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $299k implies a 510% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,946 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,209
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -26.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18040 Carroll St	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	16mo	$378,000	$303	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-40,602
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-25,500
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92570

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,983/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $209	+0% $125	+5% $40	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $26	+0% $125	+5% $224	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $201	base $125	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $299,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    historical $299,000 1619-char remark
12. 2014-06-24
    soldstatus $49,000 Closed 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Good Size Vacant Lot With Utilities Waiting For A New Buyer. This Lot Is Rectangular In Shape And Measures 19,166 Sqft or . 44 Acres. Utilities Include: Water, Electricity and Gas. Located Less Than A Minute Away From A Neighborhood Market And A Few Minutes From Schools.

13. 2014-06-24
    soldstatus $49,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Good Size Vacant Lot With Utilities Waiting For A New Buyer. This Lot Is Rectangular In Shape And Measures 19,166 Sqft or . 44 Acres. Utilities Include: Water, Electricity and Gas. Located Less Than A Minute Away From A Neighborhood Market And A Few Minutes From Schools.

14. 2014-04-05
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Good Size Vacant Lot With Utilities Waiting For A New Buyer. This Lot Is Rectangular In Shape And Measures 19,166 Sqft or . 44 Acres. Utilities Include: Water, Electricity and Gas. Located Less Than A Minute Away From A Neighborhood Market And A Few Minutes From Schools.

15. 2014-03-29
    listed $55,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Good Size Vacant Lot With Utilities Waiting For A New Buyer. This Lot Is Rectangular In Shape And Measures 19,166 Sqft or . 44 Acres. Utilities Include: Water, Electricity and Gas. Located Less Than A Minute Away From A Neighborhood Market And A Few Minutes From Schools.

16. 2003-12-12
    historical
17. 2002-12-13
    listed $75,000
18. 1991-11-20
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,983 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,983
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $2,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Val Verde Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691135
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,468
• Composite: 34.45/100
• National rank: #10154
• State rank: #820 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mead Valley

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #1381
• US rank: #27206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mead Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,082
• Household income: $79,393
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1140.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 15% White 14% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 65% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.72%
• Current HPI: 460.1716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+443.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-06-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $299,000 CRMLS
• 2014-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-24 Sold (MLS) $49,000 CRMLS
• 2014-04-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-03-29 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2003-12-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2002-12-13 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 1991-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,983 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.