251 Bardwell Way · Buda, TX 78610

$288,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot Garage $149/sqft · 13% below area Est $330k · 13% under $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pearl floorplan offers approximately 1,938 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a versatile two-story layout ideal for modern living. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests, multigenerational living, or a home office. The open-concept kitchen serves as the heart of the home and features quartz countertops, stylish cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, abundant counter space, and a large island overlooking the dining and family room areas. Large windows fill the home with natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere perfect for entertaining and everyday living.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1703 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $225,146 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,412
• List price: $288,000
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Bardwell Way	0.04mi	5/2.5	1,938 (0%)	2mo	$296,990	$153	94
224 Garcia St	0.20mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	6mo	$303,118	$160	80
231 Garcia St	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	5mo	$293,990	$155	79
556 Bull Lake Cir	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	5mo	$290,990	$154	79
508 Bull Lake Cir	0.25mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	5mo	$287,990	$152	78
199 Bardwell Way	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,782 (-8%)	5mo	$280,840	$158	75
236 Gilmer Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-7%)	5mo	$332,640	$185	66
276 Mustang Lake Cir	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	5mo	$339,990	$161	65
275 Mustang Lake Cir	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-9%)	4mo	$322,730	$182	64
211 Mustang Lake Cir	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	4mo	$339,990	$161	64
576 Gilmer Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-14%)	2mo	$320,990	$193	63
284 Mustang Lake Cir	0.17mi	4/4.0 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	5mo	$305,990	$182	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,759
• Equity at exit: $42,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-111,566
• Equity at exit: $24,901

Cash invested: $80,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1703
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $245,798

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-192	+0% $-292	+5% $-391	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-381	+0% $-292	+5% $-203	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-218	base $-292	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,000
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1782	$1,990	$1.12	15d	1	0.09mi
161 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1641	$1,925	$1.17	109d	1	0.10mi
964 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	6d	1	0.31mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	184d	1	0.33mi
143 Santa Rosa Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,400	$1.18	10d	1	0.34mi
282 Bull Lake Cir Buda, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	87d	1	0.36mi
143 Shafter St Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	109d	1	0.37mi
197 Santa Rosa Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,000	$1.24	2d	1	0.38mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,095	$1.30	127d	1	0.46mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	105d	1	0.46mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	87d	1	0.46mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	1d	1	0.70mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	101d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Prairie Lakes)Monthly association fee of $80Association fee includes common area maintenanceCommunity features: clubhouse, playground, park, trails/paths, community mailbox, common grounds/area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas availableWater connected (Municipal Utility District)Public sewer / sewer connected
• Home design: New construction2 storiesFaces southwestBuilt by DR HORTON
• Construction: HardiPlank-type sidingRadiant barrierComposition shingle roofSlab foundationNew construction (builder source)
• Exterior features: Private yardFront porchBack yardCorner lotFront yardWood fencing (fenced backyard)Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveDisposalExhaust/vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroomOne main level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryQuartz countersRecessed lightingSmart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry roomGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $288,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $288,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $288,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $288,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $288,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $288,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $288,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $288,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $288,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $288,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $288,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $288,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $288,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $288,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $288,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $288,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $288,000 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $288,000 Active 140 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $288,000 Active 139 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $288,000 Active 138 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $288,000 Active 137 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $288,000 Active 136 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $288,000 Active 135 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $288,000 Active 134 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $288,000 Active 133 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $288,000 Active 132 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $288,000 Active 131 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $288,000 Active 130 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $288,000 Active 129 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $294,500 Active 128 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $294,500 Active 127 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $294,500 Active 126 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $294,500 Active 125 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $294,500 Active 124 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $294,500 Active 123 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $294,500 Active 122 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $294,500 Active 121 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $294,500 Active 120 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $294,500 Active 119 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $294,500 Active 118 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $294,500 Active 117 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $294,500 Active 116 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $294,500 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $294,500 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $294,500 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $294,500 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $294,500 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $294,500 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $294,500 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $294,500 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$8,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in Buda, TX, offers a Pearl floorplan with 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed, and has potential for value-adding updates to increase its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Prairie Lakes)Monthly association fee of $80Association fee includes common area maintenanceCommunity features: clubhouse, playground, park, trails/paths, community mailbox, common grounds/area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas availableWater connected (Municipal Utility District)Public sewer / sewer connected
• Home design: New construction2 storiesFaces southwestBuilt by DR HORTON
• Construction: HardiPlank-type sidingRadiant barrierComposition shingle roofSlab foundationNew construction (builder source)
• Exterior features: Private yardFront porchBack yardCorner lotFront yardWood fencing (fenced backyard)Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveDisposalExhaust/vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroomOne main level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryQuartz countersRecessed lightingSmart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry roomGas dryer hookup

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $294,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $297,035 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed — Unlock MLS