251 Bardwell Way · Niederwald, TX 78610

$297,035

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $153/sqft · 12% below area Est $337k · 12% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! Check out the Pearl floorplan featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the main bedroom with an en-suite that includes a large walk-in closet. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the 4

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Prairie Lakes); Monthly association fee of $80; Association fee includes common area maintenance; Community features: clubhouse, playground, park, trails/paths, community mailbox, common grounds/area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water connected (Municipal Utility District); Public sewer / sewer connected
• Home design: New construction; 2 stories; Faces southwest; Built by DR HORTON
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Radiant barrier; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction (builder source)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Back yard; Corner lot; Front yard; Wood fencing (fenced backyard); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Exhaust/vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroom; One main level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Smart home features; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,314 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,858
• List price: $297,035
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Garcia St	0.20mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	1mo	$303,118	$160	84
188 Garcia St	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$286,990	$152	81
470 Bull Lake Cir	0.27mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	1mo	$290,990	$154	80
411 Mustang Lake Cir	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$339,990	$166	77
435 Mustang Lake Cir	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	4mo	$344,990	$164	72
395 Mustang Lake Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-8%)	3mo	$319,990	$180	70
236 Gilmer Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-7%)	1mo	$332,640	$185	70
276 Mustang Lake Cir	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	1mo	$339,990	$161	69
280 Mustang Lake Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-8%)	2mo	$326,990	$184	68
168 Juan Cordona Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$339,990	$166	67
244 Gilmer Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-14%)	2mo	$318,990	$192	57
119 Juan Cordona Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	4mo	$314,990	$187	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,432
• Equity at exit: $44,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-109,890
• Equity at exit: $25,682

Cash invested: $83,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,456/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $259,708

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,259
• Closing costs: $8,911
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	43d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,035 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,035 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,035 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,035 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,035 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,035 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,035 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,035 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   pricestatuslisting id $297,035 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,456
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,641
• Taxable loss: −$8,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,982
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in Buda, TX, offers a Pearl floorplan with 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed, and has potential for value-adding updates to increase its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $297,035 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed — Unlock MLS