Is 251 Bardwell Way in Buda, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.2% cap rate and $-268/mo modeled cash flow at a $294,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 251 Bardwell Way?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,339/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.4

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.2/15.0
Cash flow +8.3/30.0
Schools +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
DSCR +2.3/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$294,500

251 Bardwell Way · Buda, TX 78610

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot Garage $152/sqft · 13% below area Est $337k · 13% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! Check out the Pearl floorplan featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the main bedroom with an en-suite that includes a large walk-in closet. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Open concept kitchen
Natural light

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (13.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (20.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $234k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1319 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $233,854 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.20%
Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
DSCR: 0.83
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $336,858
List price: $294,500
Delta: -13.59%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Garcia St	0.20mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$303,118	$160	82
231 Garcia St	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	2mo	$293,990	$155	82
556 Bull Lake Cir	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	2mo	$290,990	$154	81
508 Bull Lake Cir	0.25mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	2mo	$287,990	$152	81
470 Bull Lake Cir	0.27mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$290,990	$154	79
199 Bardwell Way	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,782 (-8%)	2mo	$280,840	$158	78
236 Gilmer Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-7%)	2mo	$332,640	$185	68
276 Mustang Lake Cir	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	2mo	$339,990	$161	68
275 Mustang Lake Cir	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-9%)	1mo	$322,730	$182	67
211 Mustang Lake Cir	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	1mo	$339,990	$161	66
280 Mustang Lake Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-8%)	3mo	$326,990	$184	66
284 Mustang Lake Cir	0.17mi	4/4.0 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	2mo	$305,990	$182	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.4%
Equity multiple: 0.13×
Total profit: $-71,545
Equity at exit: $43,911

10-year hold

IRR: -38.7%
Equity multiple: -0.34×
Total profit: $-110,404
Equity at exit: $25,463

Cash invested: $82,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 27 active · 20 under contract
Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $312,990 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market: 71 d
This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +8.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

Rents YoY: -1.8%
Active inventory: 1319
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,339 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
Insurance: −$123
HOA: −$80
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $255,752

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-166	+0% $-268	+5% $-370	+10% $-471
Rent	-10% $-453	-5% $-360	+0% $-268	+5% $-175	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-193	base $-268	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $73,625
Closing costs: $8,835
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1641	$1,925	$1.17	18d	1	0.10mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	93d	1	0.33mi
282 Bull Lake Cir Buda, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	9d	1	0.36mi
143 Shafter St Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	18d	1	0.37mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,095	$1.30	35d	1	0.46mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	13d	1	0.46mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	9d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association (Prairie Lakes)Monthly association fee of $80Association fee includes common area maintenanceCommunity features: clubhouse, playground, park, trails/paths, community mailbox, common grounds/area

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage facing front2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas availableWater connected (Municipal Utility District)Public sewer / sewer connected
Home design: New construction2 storiesFaces southwestBuilt by DR HORTON
Construction: HardiPlank-type sidingRadiant barrierComposition shingle roofSlab foundationNew construction (builder source)
Exterior features: Private yardFront porchBack yardCorner lotFront yardWood fencing (fenced backyard)Community pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveDisposalExhaust/vented exhaust fan
Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroomOne main level bedroom
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryQuartz countersRecessed lightingSmart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)Double pane windows
Laundry & utility: Main level laundry roomGas dryer hookup

Listing history 48 events

2026-08-08

days on market $294,500 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $294,500 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $294,500 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $294,500 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $294,500 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $294,500 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $294,500 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $294,500 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $294,500 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $294,500 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $294,500 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $294,500 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $294,500 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $294,500 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $294,500 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $294,500 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $294,500 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $294,500 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $294,500 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $294,500 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $294,500 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $294,500 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $294,500 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $294,500 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $294,500 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $294,500 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $294,500 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $294,500 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $294,500 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $294,500 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $294,500 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $294,500 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $294,500 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on market $294,500 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $297,035 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $297,035 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $297,035 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $297,035 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $297,035 Active 15 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $297,035 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $297,035 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $297,035 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $297,035 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $297,035 Active 6 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $297,035 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $297,035 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-05

pricestatuslisting id $297,035 Active 1 DOM
2026-05-07

listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,062
− Mortgage interest: −$16,497
− Property taxes: −$4,418
− Insurance: −$1,472
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
− Management: −$2,245
− HOA: −$960
− Depreciation: −$8,567
Taxable loss: −$8,341

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,002
After-tax cash flow: $-1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in Buda, TX, offers a Pearl floorplan with 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed, and has potential for value-adding updates to increase its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hays CISD
NCES district ID: 4800010
Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $70,570
Composite: 34.78/100
National rank: #5118
State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

Score: 70/100
State rank: #339
US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Hays County · 286,948 people
City population: 48,319
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 48,319
Household income: $119,698
Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 286,948 people
By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
Current HPI: 220.6824
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-26 Price Changed $294,500 Unlock MLS
2026-06-03 Listed $297,035 Unlock MLS
2026-05-07 Listed — Unlock MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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