40738 Barley Straw Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$259,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $272k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANTASTIC NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM IN MILL CREEK! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Large Dining Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! White Kitchen Cabinets, Quartz Counters, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Gas Range/Stove, Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Mill Creek is in a Wonderful Location Close to Dining and Entertainment Options and Offers Excellent Amenities for the Residents!

Key facts

• Huge walk-in closet
• Split plan design
• 6,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN DESIGN
• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR LAYOUT
• DELIGHTFUL ISLAND KITCHEN
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS UTILITY ROOM
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $236,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,906
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40710 Barley Straw Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+6%)	2mo	$286,490	$164	86
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-5%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	85
40731 Barley Straw	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-11%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	80
15106 Rose Willow Ln	0.00mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (+10%)	2mo	$281,990	$155	77
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,689 (+2%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	68
40504 Warialda Trace Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+10%)	7mo	$245,000	$135	66
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-3%)	5mo	$350,000	$218	65
15214 Black Scoter Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-2%)	6mo	$299,900	$186	64
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-2%)	6mo	$304,900	$189	59
40511 Tyto Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-10%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	52
15123 Bank Swallow Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+10%)	7mo	$319,370	$175	50
40530 Tyto Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-12%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $142,770
• Equity at exit: $234,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $402,598
• Equity at exit: $505,103

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $259,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $210	+0% $121	+5% $31	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $22	+0% $121	+5% $220	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $187	base $121	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.16mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.25mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.37mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.43mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.45mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.55mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	45d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $259,990 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,990 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,990 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,990 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $273,990 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $273,990 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,990 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,990 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,990 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,990 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    FANTASTIC NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM IN MILL CREEK! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Large Dining Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! White Kitchen Cabinets, Quartz Counters, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Gas Range/Stove, Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Mill Creek is in a Wonderful Location Close to Dining and Entertainment Options and Offers Excellent Amenities for the Residents!

17. 2026-03-14
    historical Active Under Contract 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    FANTASTIC NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM IN MILL CREEK! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Large Dining Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! White Kitchen Cabinets, Quartz Counters, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Gas Range/Stove, Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Mill Creek is in a Wonderful Location Close to Dining and Entertainment Options and Offers Excellent Amenities for the Residents!

18. 2026-03-01
    listed $273,990 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    FANTASTIC NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM IN MILL CREEK! Popular Split Plan Design! Open Concept Interior Layout with Large Dining Area Open to Supersized Family Room & Delightful Island Kitchen! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Huge Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! White Kitchen Cabinets, Quartz Counters, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Gas Range/Stove, Smart Home System, Full Sprinklers, Front & Back Sod, Full Front Landscaping, Tankless Water Heater, LED Lighting, PLUS MORE! Mill Creek is in a Wonderful Location Close to Dining and Entertainment Options and Offers Excellent Amenities for the Residents!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$2,815
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$676
• After-tax cash flow: $2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and smart home features to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances the home's modern appeal and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances the home's modern appeal and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $273,990 HARMLS