8512 Blue Sage Ln · Brownsville, TX 78526

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2016 6,000 sqft lot $168/sqft · 9% below area Est $284k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

lovley home presently rented to a family member til april nice lot and garden fence in good condition all appliaiances inc

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,226
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -8.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7122 Lake Tahoe	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,750 (+13%)	13mo	$289,000	$165	53
7613 Waverly Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,741 (+13%)	23mo	$285,000	$164	53
7026 Lake Almanor Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,757 (+14%)	15mo	$305,900	$174	48
7401 Cayman Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+4%)	23mo	$234,000	$145	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,750
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-24,367
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,716/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,304

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $182	+0% $108	+5% $34	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $12	+0% $108	+5% $204	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $174	base $108	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	22d	1	0.37mi
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	14d	1	0.37mi
6654 Pino Azul Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.39mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	14d	1	1.49mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    price $259,900 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    lovley home presently rented to a family member til april nice lot and garden fence in good condition all appliaiances inc

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $249,900 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    lovley home presently rented to a family member til april nice lot and garden fence in good condition all appliaiances inc

19. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    LIKE NEW Home in a GREAT Neighborhood! Built in 2016, this 3/2 home features 1546 SQ FT of tile throughout. The kitchen is equipped with BEAUTIFUL granite countertops, custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. The living room is open to the formal dining room which is perfect for entertaining! The two guest rooms are quite spacious. The master suite features a walk in closet, double vanities and granite countertops! This home is zoned for Los Fresnos ISD Schools!

20. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus
21. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus
22. 2018-01-23
    listed $126,700 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    LIKE NEW Home in a GREAT Neighborhood! Built in 2016, this 3/2 home features 1546 SQ FT of tile throughout. The kitchen is equipped with BEAUTIFUL granite countertops, custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. The living room is open to the formal dining room which is perfect for entertaining! The two guest rooms are quite spacious. The master suite features a walk in closet, double vanities and granite countertops! This home is zoned for Los Fresnos ISD Schools!

23. 2018-01-23
    listed $126,700

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    LIKE NEW Home in a GREAT Neighborhood! Built in 2016, this 3/2 home features 1546 SQ FT of tile throughout. The kitchen is equipped with BEAUTIFUL granite countertops, custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. The living room is open to the formal dining room which is perfect for entertaining! The two guest rooms are quite spacious. The master suite features a walk in closet, double vanities and granite countertops! This home is zoned for Los Fresnos ISD Schools!

24. 2017-09-08
    soldstatus
25. 2017-09-08
    soldstatus
26. 2017-05-17
    listed $128,500
27. 2011-08-04
    soldstatus $1,115,849

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,756 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,041/yr (+$170/mo · 75.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,716
• − Insurance: −$2,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$721
• After-tax cash flow: $2,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-76.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $259,900 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $249,900 RGVMLS
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2018-01-23 Listed $126,700 RGVMLS
• 2018-01-23 Listed $126,700 MCALLENMLS
• 2017-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-08 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2017-05-17 Listed $128,500 RGVMLS
• 2011-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $1,115,849 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,716 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.