Winfield Plan · Stevensville, MI 49127

$82,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: List price $82,900
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Manufactured home plan (Winfield); Located at 604 W John Beers Rd, Stevensville, MI 49127
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,056

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Plan: Winfield; Virtual tour available
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $82,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $47,520.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $904 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 2.2% in Stevensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lakeshore School District (Berrien) (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #37 of 540 in MI (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $329 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,656 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.52%
• DSCR: 4.63
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 W John Beers Rd Unit 7K	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	10mo	$50,000	$45	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $49,894
• Equity at exit: $7,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $117,674
• Equity at exit: $4,109

Cash invested: $13,306 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49127

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $47,520

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,880
• Closing costs: $1,426
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $82,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,662
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $10,729
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $8,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior walls. It has a good roof and flooring. Painting the exterior siding and maintaining the gutters would significantly improve its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.
• Both Inspect and clean the gutters — Maintaining the gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean the gutters — Maintaining the gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeshore School District (Berrien)
• NCES district ID: 2620820
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,449
• Composite: 52.75/100
• National rank: #1546
• State rank: #37 of 540 in MI

Livability — Stevensville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• City population: 11,155
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,155
• Household income: $93,338
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 100.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -297.38%
• Current HPI: 209.9306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B