3427 Lakewood Ln · Flower Mound, TX 75022

$625,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,539 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1982 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ASSUMABLE VA LOAN THAT CAN BE ASSUMED BY VETS OR NON-VETS WITH AN INCREDIBLE 2.375% INTEREST RATE! Unbeatable value near Grapevine Lake! Beautiful stone front elevation blending perfectly with the natural elements of the area and community. This fully remodeled 5 bed, 5 bath, 3,539 sq ft home with a 2 car garage sits on over a third of an acre in one of Flower Mound’s most desirable areas, where most nearby homes are selling for $1M–$2M+. Inside, you’ll find a stunning modern kitchen with a massive waterfall-edge quartz island, electric cooktop, pot filler, sleek hanging hood vent, double ovens, built-in island microwave, wine-drink cooler, coffee bar area, custom cabinetr

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Private balcony
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• STONE FRONT ELEVATION
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WATERFALL-EDGE QUARTZ ISLAND
• FULLY RETRACTABLE GLASS DOORS
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $625k).
• Recommended offer: $550k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.5% in Flower Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#317 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 75% / reading 76%, grade A, #73 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 593 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lewisville ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($177k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($550k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $625k implies a 487% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $550,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,305,891
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3423 Lakewood Ln	0.02mi	5/4.0	3,686 (+4%)	5mo	$875,000	$237	88
7505 Stallion Cir	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,760 (+6%)	0mo	$1,495,000	$398	63
3801 Immel Dr	0.57mi	5/4.0	3,825 (+8%)	14mo	$1,350,000	$353	49
7436 Hickory Springs Rd	0.69mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,118 (-12%)	8mo	$1,149,000	$369	34
3904 Long Meadow Dr	0.54mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,974 (+12%)	16mo	$1,500,000	$377	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-85,661
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-101,633
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75022

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$912 /mo · $10,949/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,325
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,633

Max offer price $625,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $886	-5% $710	+0% $533	+5% $356	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $284	+0% $533	+5% $782	+10% $1,031
Rate	-1.0pp $847	-0.5pp $692	base $533	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3667 High Rd Flower Mound, TX	5.0	2.5	3649	$9,200	$2.52	22d	1	0.34mi
3667 High Rd Unit 1302354P Flower Mound, TX	5.0	2.5	3648	$19,730	$5.41	44d	1	0.34mi
3901 High Rd Flower Mound, TX	4.0	4.0	3000	$4,100	$1.37	22d	1	0.58mi
7704 Emerson Ln Flower Mound, TX	4.0	2.5	3696	$5,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-14
   status Active
4. 2026-03-06
   historical Active Option Contract
5. 2026-02-26
   price $625,000
6. 2025-12-15
   status Active
7. 2025-11-01
   historical Active Kick-Out
8. 2025-10-17
   status Active
9. 2025-10-14
   historical Active Kick-Out
10. 2025-09-20
    listed $649,000 Active
11. 2025-07-22
    historical $3,500
12. 2025-07-03
    price $3,500
13. 2025-06-03
    listed $3,750
14. 2025-05-28
    historical
15. 2025-05-08
    price $715,000
16. 2025-04-02
    listed $725,000 Active
17. 2025-03-31
    historical
18. 2025-01-18
    price $745,000
19. 2024-11-19
    listed $750,000 Active
20. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus
21. 2021-08-10
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2021-07-02
    status Pending
23. 2021-06-22
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2021-05-19
    listed $465,000 Active
25. 2021-01-30
    historical
26. 2021-01-12
    price $465,000
27. 2020-11-18
    listed $475,000 Active
28. 2016-06-01
    historical
29. 2016-05-04
    price $390,000
30. 2016-04-08
    price $395,000
31. 2016-01-30
    price $399,990
32. 2015-12-14
    price $420,000
33. 2015-11-26
    listed $440,000 Active
34. 2009-08-31
    soldstatus
35. 2009-06-25
    historical
36. 2009-06-25
    listed $195,000
37. 1996-11-27
    soldstatus $106,533

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,949 · $912/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,438 · $953/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$10,949
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,055
• − Management: −$6,055
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$3,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $7,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flower Mound

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #7074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Mound, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 75,184
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,090
• Household income: $177,357
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.94%
• Current HPI: 275.2094
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.24%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+486.7% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $625,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $649,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Rental Removed $3,500 NTREIS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $3,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-03 Listed for Rent $3,750 NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $715,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $725,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $745,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $750,000 NTREIS
• 2021-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-07-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-06-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-05-19 Listed $465,000 NTREIS
• 2021-01-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-01-12 Price Changed $465,000 NTREIS
• 2020-11-18 Listed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2016-06-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-05-04 Price Changed $390,000 NTREIS
• 2016-04-08 Price Changed $395,000 NTREIS
• 2016-01-30 Price Changed $399,990 NTREIS
• 2015-12-14 Price Changed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2015-11-26 Listed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2009-08-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-06-25 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2009-06-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 1996-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $106,533 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,949 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.