3277 Avalon Dr · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$310,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2000 8,712 sqft lot Est $363k · 15% under $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cont. on financing. Beautiful spacious 4 Br 2 Ba with bonus room. Vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace, screened in patio, yard well & pump, detached work shop for the handy man and a fenced in back yard. A must see! Bring your picky buyers!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $163; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Energy-efficient appliances
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Wood privacy fencing in back yard; Lot approximately 0.2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $310k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,216 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3277 Avalon Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,088 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$144	99
2474 Glenfield Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-3%)	1mo	$339,000	$167	70
2624 Glen Oaks Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,947 (-7%)	2mo	$338,000	$174	68
3280 Willowleaf Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,153 (+3%)	1mo	$389,190	$181	60
3683 Zydeco Loop	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,153 (+3%)	1mo	$408,120	$190	57
3387 Americana Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,204 (+6%)	2mo	$432,990	$196	56
3640 Zydeco Loop	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,914 (-8%)	3mo	$349,990	$183	49
3481 Americana Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,775 (-15%)	0mo	$339,590	$191	45
3687 Zydeco Loop	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,266 (+8%)	2mo	$378,000	$167	43
3600 Americana Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,266 (+8%)	0mo	$381,500	$168	42
3527 Americana Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,289 (+10%)	2mo	$392,990	$172	42
3313 Willowleaf Ln	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,266 (+8%)	2mo	$374,990	$165	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-55,332
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-71,095
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,993/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $106	+0% $18	+5% $-70	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-80	+0% $18	+5% $116	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $97	base $18	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3268 Avalon Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,230	$1.27	4d	1	0.06mi
1111 Calla Glen Ln Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1980	$2,160	$1.09	3d	1	0.48mi
2836 Cross Creek Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,880	$1.29	13d	1	0.95mi
3349 Citation Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,010	$1.42	3d	1	1.06mi
2621 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,135	$1.14	5d	1	1.10mi
2653 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,005	$1.22	9d	1	1.13mi
3664 Arava Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,065	$1.40	16d	1	1.18mi
2506 Creekfront Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,554	$1.56	25d	1	1.19mi
3445 Shelley Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,930	$1.35	3d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $310,000 Active
3. 2003-09-04
   soldstatus $156,500
4. 2003-08-19
   historical 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Cont. on financing. Beautiful spacious 4 Br 2 Ba with bonus room. Vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace, screened in patio, yard well & pump, detached work shop for the handy man and a fenced in back yard. A must see! Bring your picky buyers!

5. 2003-08-18
   soldstatus $156,500 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Cont. on financing. Beautiful spacious 4 Br 2 Ba with bonus room. Vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace, screened in patio, yard well & pump, detached work shop for the handy man and a fenced in back yard. A must see! Bring your picky buyers!

6. 2003-07-02
   listed $157,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Cont. on financing. Beautiful spacious 4 Br 2 Ba with bonus room. Vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace, screened in patio, yard well & pump, detached work shop for the handy man and a fenced in back yard. A must see! Bring your picky buyers!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,573 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$1,993
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,373
• − Management: −$2,373
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$5,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+96.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $310,000 realMLS
• 2003-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $156,500 Public Records
• 2003-08-19 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2003-08-18 Sold (MLS) $156,500 realMLS
• 2003-07-02 Listed $157,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,993 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.