188 Holmesville Rd · Baxley, GA 31513

$87,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 886 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1950 0.33 ac lot $99/sqft · 25% above area Est $70k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

Key facts

• Lots of space
• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• LOTS OF SPACE
• WITHIN A MILE OF TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Baxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#416 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Appling County (town): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #84 of 174 in GA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Appling County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Appling County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,625 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.34%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,972
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: 25.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 W Parker St	0.64mi	2/1.0	897 (+1%)	2mo	$71,500	$80	67
107 107 Peachtree St	0.47mi	2/1.0	908 (+2%)	10mo	$120,000	$132	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $545
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $19,362
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31513

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $520/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $256	+0% $232	+5% $207	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $193	+0% $232	+5% $270	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $254	base $232	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
593 Beach Rd Unit 1 Baxley, GA	2.0	2.0	1050	$975	$0.93	44d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $87,500 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $87,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $87,500 Price Change 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $94,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

18. 2026-05-14
    price $94,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

19. 2026-04-15
    price $104,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

20. 2026-04-14
    price $104,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

21. 2026-03-18
    listed $114,900 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

22. 2026-03-17
    listed $114,900 New 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This older home has a lot of charm and character. The landscaping has mature flower bushes and lots of space. Within a mile of town. Easy to view. All offers must be submitted on PropOffers.com

23. 2025-11-25
    historical
24. 2025-11-23
    price $112,900
25. 2025-11-22
    price $112,900
26. 2025-10-16
    listed $117,900 New
27. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $98,000
28. 2022-03-18
    listed $99,000
29. 2019-10-30
    soldstatus $61,000
30. 2019-10-21
    soldstatus $61,000
31. 2019-09-02
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $520 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$520
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $1,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $2,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Appling County
• NCES district ID: 1300060
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,536
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7056
• State rank: #84 of 174 in GA

Livability — Baxley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #20537

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baxley, GA
• City population: 15,941
• Population (ZIP): 15,941

Population outlook (Appling County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,311 people
• By 2030: 18,130 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 17,650 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 16,788 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 14,406 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 10,443 · -43.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Appling

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.7% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+57.9 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.21%
• Current HPI: 194.6928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+58.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $94,900 HABR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $94,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $104,900 HABR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $104,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $114,900 HABR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $114,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $112,900 HABR
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $112,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $117,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-05 Sold (MLS) $98,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $99,000 GAMLS
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-21 Sold (MLS) $61,000 GAMLS
• 2019-09-02 Listed $59,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $520 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.