421/423 W Mullin St · Watertown, NY 13601

$129,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,349 sqft · Townhouse public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1880 5,994 sqft lot $55/sqft · 25% below area Est $173k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity with this True Duplex!! 3 bedrooms and 1 bath both sides. Seller moving to Canada so anxious for a quick sale. Seller has one side rented for $800 a month and has left other side vacant so if buyer wants owner/occupied it is ready to move in, if not other side will rent for $800 a month. Located close to restaurants, grocery store, retail , hospital and more!!

Key facts

• Separate laundry
• Spacious kitchen
• Plenty of parking

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• PLENTY OF PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit property with separate gas and electric meters for each unit; Unit rents reported: one at $800/month and one at $1,000/month; Operating expenses include insurance, snow removal, and water/sewer; Owner pays grounds care, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking area; Gravel and paved surfaces; Multiple parking spaces (two or more)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story multi-unit property; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Stone foundation; Existing (original) construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an oven/range and refrigerator; One unit noted as having an eat-in kitchen; both have dining area with kitchen or eat-in space
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units (each unit listed as 3 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Property has heating
• Interior features: Carpet, laminate, vinyl, and varied flooring throughout; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; At least one unit lists in-unit laundry with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,471
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -25.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Mullin St	0.15mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,350 (0%)	4mo	$231,000	$98	80
726 Sherman St	0.52mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,088 (-11%)	13mo	$220,000	$105	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $35,631
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $138,797
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,100

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $134,900 Active 588-char remark
19. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus $76,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity with this True Duplex!! 3 bedrooms and 1 bath both sides. Seller moving to Canada so anxious for a quick sale. Seller has one side rented for $800 a month and has left other side vacant so if buyer wants owner/occupied it is ready to move in, if not other side will rent for $800 a month. Located close to restaurants, grocery store, retail , hospital and more!!

21. 2019-05-29
    listed $84,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity with this True Duplex!! 3 bedrooms and 1 bath both sides. Seller moving to Canada so anxious for a quick sale. Seller has one side rented for $800 a month and has left other side vacant so if buyer wants owner/occupied it is ready to move in, if not other side will rent for $800 a month. Located close to restaurants, grocery store, retail , hospital and more!!

22. 2016-04-19
    soldstatus $19,150

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    SOLD AS IS, BID DEADLINE, check website www.hudhomestore.com. Selling commission up to 3%, to show use HUD master key. Buyer to verify all data, HUD case # 371-346090, FHA UI Can go FHA 203 K rehab loan(Uninsured Escrow) HUD properties are offered for sale to qualified purchasers without regard to the prospective purchaser's race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status, or national origin.Great deal, Nice rental area, Large Yard, Live in one unit and rent the other out, Close to park -- Fair Condition

23. 2015-10-19
    listed $22,500

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    SOLD AS IS, BID DEADLINE, check website www.hudhomestore.com. Selling commission up to 3%, to show use HUD master key. Buyer to verify all data, HUD case # 371-346090, FHA UI Can go FHA 203 K rehab loan(Uninsured Escrow) HUD properties are offered for sale to qualified purchasers without regard to the prospective purchaser's race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status, or national origin.Great deal, Nice rental area, Large Yard, Live in one unit and rent the other out, Close to park -- Fair Condition

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $6,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $6,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+477.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $129,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $134,900 CNYIS
• 2019-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-02 Sold (MLS) $76,000 CNYIS
• 2019-05-29 Listed $84,900 CNYIS
• 2016-04-19 Sold (MLS) $19,150 Global MLS
• 2015-10-19 Listed $22,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.