1103 Berry Way · Marietta-Alderwood, WA 98262

$689,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,289 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 2004 1.00 ac lot $301/sqft · 5% above area Est $828k · 17% under $186/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set at the end of a quiet road, this Lummi Island property offers a full acre of land surrounded by mature evergreens, creating a private and peaceful setting with filtered bay and island outlooks, along with glimpses of Mt. Baker and the Canadian Coastal Range. There is also potential to enhance view corridors over time. The home features vaulted ceilings and expansive windows that bring in natural light and connect the interior to its natural surroundings. An open main living area flows out to a covered deck—well-suited for year-round enjoyment. The lower level, with separate access, provides flexible space for guests, a studio, or additional living use—offering versatility th

Key facts

• Sweeping bay views
• Walk-out access
• Rare seclusion

Tags

• SWEEPING BAY VIEWS
• COVERED VIEW DECK
• FLEXIBLE LOWER LEVEL
• WALK-OUT ACCESS
• END-OF-ROAD SETTING
• RARE SECLUSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $690k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (70.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (69.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (70.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.1% in Marietta-Alderwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$118k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($607k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $690k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $206,734 (70.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.99%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 27.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $827,743
• List price: $689,500
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $201,266
• Equity at exit: $621,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $729,177
• Equity at exit: $1,339,547

Cash invested: $193,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98262

• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 27.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,616
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,619/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$186
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-2,733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,558

Max offer price $206,734

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,343	-5% $-2,538	+0% $-2,733	+5% $-2,928	+10% $-3,123
Rent	-10% $-2,899	-5% $-2,816	+0% $-2,733	+5% $-2,650	+10% $-2,567
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,386	-0.5pp $-2,557	base $-2,733	+0.5pp $-2,911	+1.0pp $-3,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,375
• Closing costs: $20,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $186 · $2,232/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $689,500 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $689,500 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $689,500 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $689,500 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $689,500 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $689,500 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $689,500 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $689,500 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $689,500 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $689,500 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $689,500 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $689,500 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $689,500 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $689,500 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $689,500 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $689,500
17. 2026-01-06
    listed $729,500 Active
18. 2015-11-16
    historical
19. 2015-11-13
    soldstatus $290,000 Sold
20. 2015-10-11
    status Pending
21. 2015-09-29
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
22. 2015-03-09
    listed $321,000 Active
23. 2002-01-15
    historical
24. 2002-01-03
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,619 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,757 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,138/yr (+$262/mo · 86.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,623
• − Property taxes: −$3,619
• − Insurance: −$3,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − HOA: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$20,058
• Taxable loss: −$46,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marietta-Alderwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,020

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 114.22%
• Current HPI: 434.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+114.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $689,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $729,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-16 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-13 Sold (MLS) $290,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-09 Listed $321,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-15 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-03 Listed — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2021): $3,619 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.