917 Trinity St · Lockhart, TX 78644

$150,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1969 0.26 ac lot $132/sqft · 27% below area Est $206k · 27% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1940 Lockhart home on a spacious quarter-acre lot just minutes from downtown. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family residence offers classic character, a covered front porch, and a detached garage with multiple storage buildings—features rarely found this close to town. Situated on approximately 0.26 acres, the property provides excellent flexibility for outdoor living, future expansion, or investment potential. The home features central heating and air, a functional single-story layout, and pier-and-beam foundation typical of historic Lockhart homes. The generous lot depth and detached structures add value and versatility for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors seeking additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located near downtown Lockhart, local schools, dining, parks, and major commuter routes, this property offers small-town charm with easy access to Austin, San Marcos, and surrounding Central Texas communities. Offered as-is and priced to reflect condition, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or buyers looking to restore or personalize a classic Lockhart property in an established neighborhood.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Single-story layout
• Detached garage

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• PIER-AND-BEAM FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,879 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,267
• List price: $150,999
• Delta: -26.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 Neches St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+0%)	7mo	$80,000	$69	73
905 Luann Ln	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,089 (-5%)	6mo	$119,000	$109	72
67 Trinity Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,189 (+4%)	21mo	$214,720	$181	67
717 S Commerce St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-5%)	8mo	$180,000	$165	64
904 Chihuahua St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,067 (-7%)	12mo	$284,900	$267	63
1007 4th St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (-2%)	21mo	$275,000	$244	60
1409 4th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,062 (-8%)	6mo	$219,000	$206	57
902 Chihuahua St	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	7mo	$259,900	$260	52
516 Neches St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+6%)	16mo	$310,000	$254	50
512 San Saba St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+10%)	13mo	$269,990	$214	45
721 Chihuahua St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	11mo	$255,000	$255	45
515 S Blanco	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,230 (+7%)	15mo	$475,000	$386	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,804
• Equity at exit: $22,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,452
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,526/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $150,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $272	+0% $230	+5% $187	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $165	+0% $230	+5% $294	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $268	base $230	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,595	$1.09	2d	1	0.06mi
67 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1253	$1,700	$1.36	24d	1	0.08mi
61 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	5d	1	0.09mi
609 Cottonwood St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1084	$1,295	$1.19	44d	1	0.18mi
750 S Main St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,850	$1.34	44d	1	0.29mi
703 San Saba St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$1,700	$2.09	5d	1	0.38mi
1204 Blackjack St Unit B Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.44mi
908 S Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.45mi
1001 Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,061	$1.23	2d	1	0.48mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	44d	1	0.59mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	0.59mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.74mi
1510 S Medina St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	44d	1	0.75mi
1010 Crockett St Lockhart, TX	2.0	3.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	20d	1	0.82mi
1010 Crockett St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.5	1140	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	0.82mi
115 S Frio St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	5d	1	0.96mi
115 S Frio St Unit H Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	44d	1	0.96mi
1502 Oak Knoll Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,050	$1.48	44d	1	1.03mi
728 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,125	$1.19	5d	1	1.05mi
728 W San Antonio St Unit 730 A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,000	$1.06	5d	1	1.05mi
329 Flores St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	1.24mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	44d	1	1.27mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	5d	1	1.33mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	11d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,999 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,999 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,999 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $150,999 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-04-08
   price $150,999 1159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

   Charming 1940 Lockhart home on a spacious quarter-acre lot just minutes from downtown. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family residence offers classic character, a covered front porch, and a detached garage with multiple storage buildings—features rarely found this close to town. Situated on approximately 0.26 acres, the property provides excellent flexibility for outdoor living, future expansion, or investment potential. The home features central heating and air, a functional single-story layout, and pier-and-beam foundation typical of historic Lockhart homes. The generous lot depth and detached structures add value and versatility for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors seeking additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located near downtown Lockhart, local schools, dining, parks, and major commuter routes, this property offers small-town charm with easy access to Austin, San Marcos, and surrounding Central Texas communities. Offered as-is and priced to reflect condition, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or buyers looking to restore or personalize a classic Lockhart property in an established neighborhood.

6. 2026-03-09
   price $169,999 1159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

   Charming 1940 Lockhart home on a spacious quarter-acre lot just minutes from downtown. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family residence offers classic character, a covered front porch, and a detached garage with multiple storage buildings—features rarely found this close to town. Situated on approximately 0.26 acres, the property provides excellent flexibility for outdoor living, future expansion, or investment potential. The home features central heating and air, a functional single-story layout, and pier-and-beam foundation typical of historic Lockhart homes. The generous lot depth and detached structures add value and versatility for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors seeking additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located near downtown Lockhart, local schools, dining, parks, and major commuter routes, this property offers small-town charm with easy access to Austin, San Marcos, and surrounding Central Texas communities. Offered as-is and priced to reflect condition, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or buyers looking to restore or personalize a classic Lockhart property in an established neighborhood.

7. 2026-01-06
   listed $189,999 Active 1159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

   Charming 1940 Lockhart home on a spacious quarter-acre lot just minutes from downtown. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family residence offers classic character, a covered front porch, and a detached garage with multiple storage buildings—features rarely found this close to town. Situated on approximately 0.26 acres, the property provides excellent flexibility for outdoor living, future expansion, or investment potential. The home features central heating and air, a functional single-story layout, and pier-and-beam foundation typical of historic Lockhart homes. The generous lot depth and detached structures add value and versatility for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors seeking additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located near downtown Lockhart, local schools, dining, parks, and major commuter routes, this property offers small-town charm with easy access to Austin, San Marcos, and surrounding Central Texas communities. Offered as-is and priced to reflect condition, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or buyers looking to restore or personalize a classic Lockhart property in an established neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,526
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable income: $391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $150,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $169,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $189,999 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,526 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.