3218 Pine Run Dr · Houston, TX 77388

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 6,599 sqft lot $140/sqft · 16% below area Est $295k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREAS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Single-story (rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (14x15)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x12); Bedroom on the first floor (10x10); Bedroom on the first floor (10x10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathrooms on the first floor (8x9 and 8x9); Bathroom on the first floor (7x8)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lemm El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 625 students, 47% FRL); Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,857 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,118
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -15.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20019 Hardsville Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	87
3226 Nickwill Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	2mo	$289,900	$170	79
3039 Lemmingham Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (+3%)	3mo	$289,900	$158	66
3226 Olivine Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-0%)	7mo	$255,000	$144	61
20535 Spring Bluff Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,907 (+7%)	8mo	$265,000	$139	60
2906 Reynolds Creek Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,018 (+13%)	5mo	$329,900	$163	60
20110 Glen Lake Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,985 (+11%)	13mo	$350,000	$176	60
3006 Spring Fair Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-11%)	4mo	$249,500	$157	49
3214 Spring Flower Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-14%)	6mo	$255,000	$166	46
3118 Enchanted Hollow Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-10%)	14mo	$300,000	$188	42
21043 Coral Bridge Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (+5%)	15mo	$280,000	$149	40
21014 Tonydale Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-11%)	15mo	$284,990	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-59,289
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-92,140
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,284/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $213,857

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-128	+0% $-199	+5% $-269	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-286	+0% $-199	+5% $-112	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-136	base $-199	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3123 Spring Ranch Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,819	$1.12	0d	1	0.42mi
3123 Spring Ranch Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,819	$1.12	45d	1	0.42mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	0d	23	0.85mi
20019 Venetto ST Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2325	$2,690	$1.16	45d	1	0.88mi
2539 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1086	$2,214	$2.04	0d	16	0.89mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	4d	67	1.02mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	45d	1	1.14mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	0d	29	1.28mi
3906 Postwood Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2211	$2,045	$0.92	9d	1	1.29mi
4310 Stallion Brook Ln Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,175	$1.04	22d	1	1.42mi
18620 Louetta Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1930	$2,499	$1.29	14d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $249,000 Active 308-char remark
2. 2021-09-09
   soldstatus Sold 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

3. 2021-09-09
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

4. 2021-08-28
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

5. 2021-08-18
   status Option Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

6. 2021-08-12
   listed $259,900 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Very clean one story, great access to 99, 45, 249. Close to The Woodlands, Exxon. Lots of natural light, high ceilings, crown moldings, very open floor plan. Corner fireplace. Stainless appliances, lots of cabinets, Corian countertops. Walk-in pantry. Primary is split from secondary bedrooms. Big paver patio. Private backyard backs to farm.

7. 2015-03-17
   soldstatus
8. 2015-03-13
   historical

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   SUPER convenient-QUICK access to I45,Hardy Toll, Woodlands, Exxon Mobil, shopping & restaurants. Quiet street. High ceilings. Crown molding. Easy care tile floors. Open floor plan. Corner gas fireplace. Sleek stainless appliances. Lots of cabinet space. Expansive Corian counters. Walk-in pantry. Split floor plan offers privacy to large master bedroom with cozy window box seat. Jacuzzi tub. Expansive paver patio. Private backyard-backs to farm. LOW HOA. LOW tax rate. Numerous community amenities.

9. 2015-03-12
   soldstatus Sold

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   SUPER convenient-QUICK access to I45,Hardy Toll, Woodlands, Exxon Mobil, shopping & restaurants. Quiet street. High ceilings. Crown molding. Easy care tile floors. Open floor plan. Corner gas fireplace. Sleek stainless appliances. Lots of cabinet space. Expansive Corian counters. Walk-in pantry. Split floor plan offers privacy to large master bedroom with cozy window box seat. Jacuzzi tub. Expansive paver patio. Private backyard-backs to farm. LOW HOA. LOW tax rate. Numerous community amenities.

10. 2015-02-17
    status Pending, Continue to Show

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    SUPER convenient-QUICK access to I45,Hardy Toll, Woodlands, Exxon Mobil, shopping & restaurants. Quiet street. High ceilings. Crown molding. Easy care tile floors. Open floor plan. Corner gas fireplace. Sleek stainless appliances. Lots of cabinet space. Expansive Corian counters. Walk-in pantry. Split floor plan offers privacy to large master bedroom with cozy window box seat. Jacuzzi tub. Expansive paver patio. Private backyard-backs to farm. LOW HOA. LOW tax rate. Numerous community amenities.

11. 2015-02-09
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    SUPER convenient-QUICK access to I45,Hardy Toll, Woodlands, Exxon Mobil, shopping & restaurants. Quiet street. High ceilings. Crown molding. Easy care tile floors. Open floor plan. Corner gas fireplace. Sleek stainless appliances. Lots of cabinet space. Expansive Corian counters. Walk-in pantry. Split floor plan offers privacy to large master bedroom with cozy window box seat. Jacuzzi tub. Expansive paver patio. Private backyard-backs to farm. LOW HOA. LOW tax rate. Numerous community amenities.

12. 2015-02-05
    listed $182,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    SUPER convenient-QUICK access to I45,Hardy Toll, Woodlands, Exxon Mobil, shopping & restaurants. Quiet street. High ceilings. Crown molding. Easy care tile floors. Open floor plan. Corner gas fireplace. Sleek stainless appliances. Lots of cabinet space. Expansive Corian counters. Walk-in pantry. Split floor plan offers privacy to large master bedroom with cozy window box seat. Jacuzzi tub. Expansive paver patio. Private backyard-backs to farm. LOW HOA. LOW tax rate. Numerous community amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,284 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,284 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$6,284
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-12 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2015-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-05 Listed $182,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,284 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.