16268 Wrangler Ave · Grangerland, TX 77302

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2000 0.40 ac lot Est $185k · 16% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedroom home 2 bathroom home on a large lot. Priced to sell quickly. The home's layout maximizes the space and the large glass doors to the backyard let in the natural light. Home needs repairs.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Backyard
• Natural light

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• GLASS DOORS
• BACKYARD
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by IMC Management; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story residence; Built in 2000
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot approximately 0.3988 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 13); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (each ~12 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.08%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16287 Wrangler Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$179,991	$115	89
16385 Red Tail Hawk Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$102	89
16297 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$112	81
16547 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$118	81
16445 Kyle Reid Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$199,000	$127	80
16344 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$219,000	$140	77
16117 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$119,900	$76	76
16524 Desert Star Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	61
16535 Bunny Hill Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$155,000	$115	56
16316 Lone Corral Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$179,999	$134	53
16105 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	51
16327 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $17,251
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $71,609
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,086/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $698	+0% $654	+5% $610	+10% $566
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $567	+0% $654	+5% $741	+10% $829
Rate	-1.0pp $732	-0.5pp $693	base $654	+0.5pp $614	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	0.68mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.81mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	2d	13	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    status Active
15. 2026-05-21
    historical
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2025-09-22
    soldstatus
18. 2025-09-22
    soldstatus
19. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$63/mo · 36.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,086
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $5,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $6,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,086 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.