Grand Oak Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$147,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,185 sqft · Manufactured · 390 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready spacious 4 bedroom home with over 2100 sq ft is ready for you to call home! This must-see floorplan sits on the site residential style, and it has a large back yard that already has a new fence. Appliances, shed, central air and more come with the Grand Oak! Don't wait until it is too late. One of the last sites of its kind in phase one!

Key facts

• Large back yard
• Central air
• New fence

Tags

• LARGE BACK YARD
• NEW FENCE
• CENTRAL AIR

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $130,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.68%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,012
• Equity at exit: $22,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $43,596
• Equity at exit: $12,788

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $147,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10519 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1643	$1,900	$1.16	43d	1	0.29mi
10531 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1849	$1,700	$0.92	43d	1	0.30mi
5322 Freshwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,525	$1.00	24d	1	0.37mi
10332 Green Br San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	24d	1	0.37mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	24d	1	0.39mi
10366 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	11d	1	0.43mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	4d	1	0.43mi
10418 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	43d	1	0.47mi
10427 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,700	$0.88	43d	1	0.51mi
10431 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	43d	1	0.51mi
10447 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,500	$1.06	43d	1	0.53mi
10471 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	24d	1	0.56mi
10929 Presa Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1503	$1,450	$0.96	43d	1	0.76mi
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,900 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,900 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,900 Active 381 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,900 Active 380 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,900 Active 379 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $147,900 Active 376 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,900 Active 375 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,900 Active 374 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,900 Active 373 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 372 DOM
14. 2025-05-24
    listed $147,900 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Move in ready spacious 4 bedroom home with over 2100 sq ft is ready for you to call home! This must-see floorplan sits on the site residential style, and it has a large back yard that already has a new fence. Appliances, shed, central air and more come with the Grand Oak! Don't wait until it is too late. One of the last sites of its kind in phase one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable income: $3,519
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $4,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, spacious 4-bedroom home is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. Minor landscaping and curb appeal improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — Can increase the home's appeal and functionality for outdoor entertaining.
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — Can increase the home's appeal and functionality for outdoor entertaining. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $147,900 Zillow