1150 W Winton Ave #470 · Hayward, CA 94545

$164,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1970 $191/sqft · 18% below area Est $200k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a cute home. Across from guest parking and the park office. Backyard is so cute. Owner has remodeled and enlarged the master bedroom. New kitchen, frig, stackable washer and dryer. Everything that you need plus.

Key facts

• Two storage sheds
• Built-in china hutch
• Community pool

Tags

• OVERSIZED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• VERSATILE BONUS SPACE
• BUILT-IN CHINA HUTCH
• UPDATED GALLEY KITCHEN
• STACKABLE WASHER AND DRYER
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community in Eden Gardens Estates; Community pool is in-ground
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park allows pets (number and size limits; some approvals required); Community clubhouse, pool, and spa; Community laundry, car wash area, guest parking; Park interview and pet restrictions apply

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with one space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide body type
• Construction: Lap siding; Lap skirt (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard; Fenced yard; Close to clubhouse; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Window coverings; 2 bedrooms, 1 bath (street level); 5 total rooms; Other room types
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (stacked); Laundry located in kitchen; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $164k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $159,080 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.69%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -18.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #204	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (+2%)	1mo	$200,000	$227	91
1150 W Winton Ave #123	0.06mi	2/2.0	880 (+2%)	0mo	$185,000	$210	89
1200 W Winton Ave #89	0.15mi	2/1.0	880 (+2%)	11mo	$135,000	$153	80
1200 W Winton Ave #59	0.07mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	11mo	$162,000	$180	80
1200 W Winton Ave #124	0.10mi	2/1.0	832 (-3%)	15mo	$180,000	$216	78
1150 W Winton Ave #530	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (-7%)	19mo	$160,000	$200	73
1200 W Winton Ave #173	0.15mi	2/2.0	800 (-7%)	20mo	$198,000	$248	61
1200 W Winton Ave #168	0.15mi	2/15.0	800 (-7%)	2mo	$120,000	$150	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $37,442
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $112,182
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	44d	1	0.67mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	2d	1	0.83mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	44d	1	0.83mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	2d	1	0.83mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$3,128	$3.81	2d	13	0.93mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	44d	1	1.00mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	5d	2	1.04mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	5d	1	1.06mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	44d	1	1.07mi
20913 Royal Ave Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	675	$2,800	$4.15	44d	1	1.20mi
24663 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,195	$2.95	11d	2	1.23mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	20d	1	1.25mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	2d	15	1.26mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	44d	1	1.28mi
25200 Santa Clara St Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$2,849	$3.74	2d	7	1.34mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	44d	1	1.36mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	3d	1	1.36mi
25021 Cypress Ave Apt 6 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,050	$3.42	44d	1	1.38mi
25341 Cypress Ave Unit 41 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,825	$3.46	24d	1	1.46mi
25355 Cypress Ave Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,995	$3.19	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $164,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $168,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $178,000 Active 1115-char remark
17. 2016-05-12
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    What a cute home. Across from guest parking and the park office. Backyard is so cute. Owner has remodeled and enlarged the master bedroom. New kitchen, frig, stackable washer and dryer. Everything that you need plus.

18. 2016-04-15
    status Pending 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    What a cute home. Across from guest parking and the park office. Backyard is so cute. Owner has remodeled and enlarged the master bedroom. New kitchen, frig, stackable washer and dryer. Everything that you need plus.

19. 2016-04-09
    listed $105,999 New 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    What a cute home. Across from guest parking and the park office. Backyard is so cute. Owner has remodeled and enlarged the master bedroom. New kitchen, frig, stackable washer and dryer. Everything that you need plus.

20. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus $16,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Please call lising agent for questions- Joe Rosa 510-552-0026

21. 2011-03-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Please call lising agent for questions- Joe Rosa 510-552-0026

22. 2011-03-16
    listed $20,000 New

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Please call lising agent for questions- Joe Rosa 510-552-0026

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $10,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $9,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+720.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $164,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $168,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $178,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-05-12 Sold (MLS) $100,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-04-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-04-09 Listed $105,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $16,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-03-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-03-16 Listed $20,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR