427 Home Ave · Trenton, NJ 08611

$244,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1927 1,390 sqft lot Est $324k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solidly maintained house in attractive Chestnut Park, recently redecorated and repaired. Brand new carpets throughout. Bedrooms have expanded closets, so ample storage space. Basement is part finished, with inbuilt bar. Back patio leads onto cute, enclosed back yard - it's BBQ time! Relax out on the front porch on those beautiful sunny days! Owner is also selling next door house, so a combined purchase can be arranged. Please see MLS#4677182

Key facts

• Built 1927
• Listed 73 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade finished area about 1,008 (assessor)
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 13.90 x 100.00; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Daylight, full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,163/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $245k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,316 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Benton Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	0mo	$335,000	$332	76
627 Grand St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	953 (-6%)	4mo	$183,000	$192	69
220 Jeremiah	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	8mo	$320,000	$317	68
811 Anderson St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (+2%)	0mo	$206,000	$201	68
44 Jeremiah Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+10%)	7mo	$325,000	$293	64
412 Bow Hill Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+1%)	13mo	$325,000	$321	62
55 Jeremiah Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+10%)	15mo	$302,000	$273	57
153 Reed Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,023 (+2%)	15mo	$335,000	$327	57
89 Reed Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-6%)	11mo	$360,000	$378	50
63 Reeger Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+6%)	10mo	$285,000	$268	47
228 Jeremiah Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+10%)	13mo	$365,000	$331	47
219 Barricklo St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+14%)	13mo	$382,000	$332	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,844
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,151
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,727/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	14d	1	0.13mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	14d	1	0.14mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	13d	1	0.23mi
225 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	21d	1	0.24mi
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	21d	1	0.36mi
837 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	21d	1	0.43mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.53mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.53mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	0.57mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	21d	1	0.58mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	21d	1	0.59mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,895	$1.27	21d	1	0.61mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,785	$1.20	21d	1	0.61mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	21d	1	0.80mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	0.85mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.09mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.13mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.16mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.36mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $244,900 Active
16. 2006-07-07
    soldstatus $98,500
17. 2006-07-01
    soldstatus $98,500 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Solidly maintained house in attractive Chestnut Park, recently redecorated and repaired. Brand new carpets throughout. Bedrooms have expanded closets, so ample storage space. Basement is part finished, with inbuilt bar. Back patio leads onto cute, enclosed back yard - it's BBQ time! Relax out on the front porch on those beautiful sunny days! Owner is also selling next door house, so a combined purchase can be arranged. Please see MLS#4677182

18. 2006-05-05
    historical 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Solidly maintained house in attractive Chestnut Park, recently redecorated and repaired. Brand new carpets throughout. Bedrooms have expanded closets, so ample storage space. Basement is part finished, with inbuilt bar. Back patio leads onto cute, enclosed back yard - it's BBQ time! Relax out on the front porch on those beautiful sunny days! Owner is also selling next door house, so a combined purchase can be arranged. Please see MLS#4677182

19. 2006-02-11
    listed $98,500 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Solidly maintained house in attractive Chestnut Park, recently redecorated and repaired. Brand new carpets throughout. Bedrooms have expanded closets, so ample storage space. Basement is part finished, with inbuilt bar. Back patio leads onto cute, enclosed back yard - it's BBQ time! Relax out on the front porch on those beautiful sunny days! Owner is also selling next door house, so a combined purchase can be arranged. Please see MLS#4677182

20. 2003-12-05
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,413 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,685/yr (+$140/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,727
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$2,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $1,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+315.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $244,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-01 Sold (MLS) $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-11 Listed $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,727 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.