37303 Kinkaid Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1970 5,550 sqft lot Est $123k · 6% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wide open living area will be great for card night or friends over for dinner. The kitchen has lots of storage and room to cook, laundry is in a huge utility shed at end of carport, Large Master suite offers a large walk in closet, shower in the bathroom, and goes out to a screened porch. Screened porch is in back of home so you will have lots of privacy. Close proximity to shopping, Doctors, banks, Zephyr Park, and great restaurants. Minutes from downtown Zephyrhills offers a stroll down 5th Ave where you can find the quaint little shops, and activities scheduled thru out the year! This is a must see HOME! Won't last long, so call to make your appointment to view all this property has to offer for your Winter home or year round. Sorry-no pets or pool!

Key facts

• Lifetime roof
• Vinyl siding
• Front door overhang

Tags

• LIFETIME ROOF
• CONCRETE WALKWAYS
• FRONT DOOR OVERHANG
• VINYL SIDING
• REINFORCED CARPORT ROOF
• GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association approval not required
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tropical Mobile HOA) with clubhouse; Monthly HOA dues approximately $18.33 (annual fee $220); Community mailbox and street lights; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1 carport space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Fiber optics available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Fire hydrant nearby; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (triple wide); Attached property; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace with pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1 story (single level)
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Shade shutters; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water softener; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Kitchen and family room combination; Open floor plan; Solid surface and stone counters; Solid wood cabinets; Window treatments; Aluminum window frames; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry room; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $115k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.10%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37350 Tropical Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	964 (+0%)	3mo	$54,000	$56	89
5015 Shirley Cir	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	976 (+2%)	3mo	$95,000	$97	74
37100 8th Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	1mo	$138,000	$144	74
37229 Sandra Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	931 (-3%)	1mo	$106,900	$115	72
37024 8th Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	2mo	$45,000	$47	71
5250 Betmar Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	936 (-2%)	3mo	$143,000	$153	70
37135 Pauls Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	1mo	$244,000	$264	60
37240 Beverly Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (-6%)	2mo	$130,500	$145	58
36801 Judee Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	1mo	$159,900	$185	49
4639 Coral St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$76,000	$72	48
36946 Grace Ave	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,063 (+11%)	0mo	$135,000	$127	47
37913 Sago Palm Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$135,000	$128	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $20,764
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $55,422
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $231/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	21d	1	0.46mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	17d	1	0.62mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	0.63mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	0.66mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.68mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	0.69mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.72mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.82mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.88mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.05mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.06mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.10mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.11mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	1.15mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	24d	1	1.31mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	1.42mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.43mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	1d	142	1.45mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	24d	1	1.47mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-26
   price $114,900
2. 2026-01-12
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-06-30
   price $129,900
5. 2025-05-29
   price $134,900
6. 2025-02-06
   price $139,900
7. 2025-01-28
   price $185,000
8. 2024-12-24
   listed $199,900 Active
9. 2019-10-21
   soldstatus $43,500 Sold 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   Wide open living area will be great for card night or friends over for dinner. The kitchen has lots of storage and room to cook, laundry is in a huge utility shed at end of carport, Large Master suite offers a large walk in closet, shower in the bathroom, and goes out to a screened porch. Screened porch is in back of home so you will have lots of privacy. Close proximity to shopping, Doctors, banks, Zephyr Park, and great restaurants. Minutes from downtown Zephyrhills offers a stroll down 5th Ave where you can find the quaint little shops, and activities scheduled thru out the year! This is a must see HOME! Won't last long, so call to make your appointment to view all this property has to offer for your Winter home or year round. Sorry-no pets or pool!

10. 2019-09-30
    status Pending 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Wide open living area will be great for card night or friends over for dinner. The kitchen has lots of storage and room to cook, laundry is in a huge utility shed at end of carport, Large Master suite offers a large walk in closet, shower in the bathroom, and goes out to a screened porch. Screened porch is in back of home so you will have lots of privacy. Close proximity to shopping, Doctors, banks, Zephyr Park, and great restaurants. Minutes from downtown Zephyrhills offers a stroll down 5th Ave where you can find the quaint little shops, and activities scheduled thru out the year! This is a must see HOME! Won't last long, so call to make your appointment to view all this property has to offer for your Winter home or year round. Sorry-no pets or pool!

11. 2019-07-22
    listed $48,000 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Wide open living area will be great for card night or friends over for dinner. The kitchen has lots of storage and room to cook, laundry is in a huge utility shed at end of carport, Large Master suite offers a large walk in closet, shower in the bathroom, and goes out to a screened porch. Screened porch is in back of home so you will have lots of privacy. Close proximity to shopping, Doctors, banks, Zephyr Park, and great restaurants. Minutes from downtown Zephyrhills offers a stroll down 5th Ave where you can find the quaint little shops, and activities scheduled thru out the year! This is a must see HOME! Won't last long, so call to make your appointment to view all this property has to offer for your Winter home or year round. Sorry-no pets or pool!

12. 2014-03-04
    soldstatus $31,000
13. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus $31,000
14. 2013-01-18
    listed $33,000
15. 2001-06-01
    soldstatus $43,500
16. 1993-12-02
    soldstatus $30,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $231 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$723/yr (+$60/mo · 312.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$231
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $6,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,657
• After-tax cash flow: $6,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+271.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-24 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-21 Sold (MLS) $43,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-22 Listed $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) $31,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-18 Listed $33,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $231 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.