423 Southfork Blvd · Wylie, TX 75098

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $74k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step onto the porch overlooking the peaceful pond, and you'll immediately see why this fully renovated 3-bed, 2-bath home is one of the most appealing in the Southfork community. What truly sets this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home apart is the combination of its fresh renovation and the lifestyle the Southfork community provides. The home itself feels brand new. modern bathrooms, new subflooring and wood flooring, updated electrical throughout, LED lighting, upgraded ceiling fans, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The covered front porch offers a peaceful pond view, giving the home a relaxed, welcoming feel. A two-car covered carport and a wired, shelved storage building add real practicality

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Fully renovated
• Updated electrical

Tags

• PORCH OVERLOOKING POND
• FULLY RENOVATED
• MODERN BATHROOMS
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• WOOD FLOORING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wylie ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #28 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.07%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,176
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Gary Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$74,999	$61	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $61,444
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $132,523
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75098

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $1,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2025-12-13
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,097/yr (+$91/mo · 298.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $14,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,553
• After-tax cash flow: $11,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $84,145
• Composite: 57.25/100
• National rank: #1091
• State rank: #28 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wylie, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,325
• Household income: $122,089
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 996.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.91%
• Current HPI: 261.9973
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Listed $80,000 ForSaleByOwner.com