25 Ping Hl Cv · Counce, TN 38326

$227,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

Key facts

• Furnished loft
• Shady yard
• Built 2016

Tags

• SHADY YARD
• ENTERTAINING PAVILION
• FURNISHED LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.4% in Counce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $227k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,592 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $69,660
• Equity at exit: $160,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $211,676
• Equity at exit: $307,617

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38326

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $198,440

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-119	+0% $-197	+5% $-276	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-266	+0% $-197	+5% $-129	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-140	base $-197	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $227,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $227,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $227,000 Active
17. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

18. 2020-09-14
    status Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

19. 2020-09-09
    historical 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

20. 2020-09-08
    historical CT Insp - Inspection Contingency 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

21. 2020-09-01
    listed $145,000 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This charming, cottage style 2 bedroom and 2 bath home features an open floor plan that is great for entertaining your guest, a small loft for extra guest, covered front porch, large back deck and an awesome pavilion for even more space to relax and entertain your whole crew after a day on the lake.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,405
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable loss: −$6,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 4701680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,404
• Composite: 22.64/100
• National rank: #8061
• State rank: #76 of 139 in TN

Livability — Counce

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,566

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,740 people
• By 2030: 23,971 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,284 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 20,612 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 17,072 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 13,723 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.1% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+67.5 2016: R+64.2 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.21%
• Current HPI: 303.1462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $227,000 FSBO.com
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2020-09-14 Pending — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2020-09-09 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2020-09-08 Contingent — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2020-09-01 Listed $145,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS