105 Lafayette 2471 · Bradley, AR 71861

$24,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 2000

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is leased land. Buyer would need to be approved by the land owner.

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 120 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#294 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $211 of equity ($166 loan paydown + $45 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,840 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 153.37%
• DSCR: 7.82
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.07×
• Total profit: $54,233
• Equity at exit: $7,196

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.03×
• Total profit: $121,134
• Equity at exit: $8,833

Cash invested: $6,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71861

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $210

Max offer price $24,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,000
• Closing costs: $720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-03-22
   status Under Contract
2. 2023-11-17
   listed $24,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,344
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$698
• Taxable income: $10,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $7,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Bradley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #20275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,330

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,990 people
• By 2030: 5,452 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 4,482 · -25.2%
• By 2050: 3,625 · -39.5%
• By 2075: 2,352 · -60.7%
• By 2100: 1,830 · -69.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.0% · R 68.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Current HPI: 261.3192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-22 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $24,000 CARMLS