803 Jefferson Ave · Cleveland, TX 77327

$165,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 7,248 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 803 Jefferson Ave in the heart of Cleveland. This beautifully crafted 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a thoughtfully designed open-concept layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home features quality finishes, energy-efficient elements, and a modern, comfortable design throughout. Ideally located near local schools and everyday amenities, this property offers convenience for a variety of lifestyles and a short walk to schools. Enjoy a nice-sized backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings or future customization. Just five minutes from Grand Oaks Golf Club, adding great recreational value. Great rental income poten

Key facts

• 7,248 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces east
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025; Built by Zion Homes Development Group
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 12x14; Bedroom (first level) — 10x12; Bedroom (first level) — 11x12
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $165,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $209,732.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 11279% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,732
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -21.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Jefferson Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	0mo	$165,000	$120	93
807 Jefferson Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	3mo	$175,000	$127	90
809 Jefferson Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	3mo	$175,000	$127	90
1204 Parkhurst Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-2%)	2mo	$196,880	$143	74
908 Perry St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	10mo	$182,000	$135	58
1002 Williams St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	10mo	$165,000	$127	57
808 Parkhurst Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	11mo	$249,900	$159	56
1105 S Fenner Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	8mo	$172,900	$129	56
624 Truman St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-3%)	10mo	$174,900	$129	56
1107 Fenner St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	10mo	$205,000	$152	54
803 Hays St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$125,000	$104	42
605 Arvon St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	1mo	$82,200	$65	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-44,166
• Equity at exit: $31,272

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-46,401
• Equity at exit: $18,134

Cash invested: $58,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,100
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,007/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $176,546

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-128	+0% $-188	+5% $-247	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-255	+0% $-188	+5% $-121	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-135	base $-188	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,433
• Closing costs: $6,292
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	0d	1	0.11mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	0d	1	0.12mi
201 Pine Bend Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.70mi
511 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	44d	1	0.75mi
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	8d	1	0.81mi
1301 Nevell St Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,442	$1.74	0d	5	1.15mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	23d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 764-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $1,450
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $165,000 Active 764-char remark
4. 2026-04-23
   historical $165,000 764-char remark
5. 2026-01-19
   historical
6. 2025-07-31
   listed $189,000 Active
7. 2023-07-05
   soldstatus
8. 2023-07-05
   soldstatus
9. 2023-07-05
   soldstatus
10. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
11. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
12. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
13. 2019-12-17
    historical
14. 2019-10-31
    price $141,251
15. 2019-08-06
    listed $136,251 Active
16. 1999-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,007 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,007 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,748
• − Property taxes: −$4,007
• − Insurance: −$1,049
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$6,101
• Taxable loss: −$5,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $141,251 HARMLS
• 2019-08-06 Listed $136,251 HARMLS
• 1999-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,007 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.