23 Starcrest Dr #21 · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,708 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1942 8,276 sqft lot Est $237k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This duplex offers 2 distinct ranch-style units w/ private entrances. Each side provides comfort & privacy. Unit 23 boasts A/C, 2 large bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a generous living room/dining room area, kitchen, screened in sunporch, plus a convenient 1 car garage. Unit 21 features 1 bedroom, 1 bath, a cozy kitchen, living room, along with a screened in sunporch, and basement. Both units offer off-street parking, private basements, outdoor sheds for extra storage and a fully fenced yard. Opportunities like this don't last long. All offers, if any, are due on Monday, March 30 by noon.

Key facts

• Private entrances
• Off-street parking
• Private basements

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRANCES
• SCREENED IN SUNPORCH
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• PRIVATE BASEMENTS
• OUTDOOR SHEDS
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cleveland Hill Union Free School District (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,525/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $200k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,412
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Pendlewood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-6%)	11mo	$222,000	$139	63
48 Awood Pl	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+12%)	17mo	$190,000	$99	46
14 Mapleview Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,595 (-7%)	6mo	$260,000	$163	43
125 Beryl Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (+10%)	18mo	$235,000	$125	39
100 Midland Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,631 (-4%)	21mo	$242,333	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,165
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $28,857
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,447/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1.5	$1,306
1× unit	1	1	$1,219
Total (2 units)			$2,525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Awood Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,500	$0.82	2d	1	0.25mi
2935 Genesee St Unit Up Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	10d	1	0.36mi
44 Aurora Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$3,300	$2.59	2d	1	1.09mi
143 Reo Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,600	$1.40	12d	1	1.33mi
4563 Union Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1882	$1,525	$0.81	10d	1	1.33mi
455-495 Wehrle Dr Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2019-05-03
   soldstatus $96,820

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,447 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,447 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,447
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$478
• After-tax cash flow: $4,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland Hill Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3607680
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,785
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4323
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+106.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $96,820 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,447 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.