🏷️ Likely Rental
1565 Highway 66 #20 · Estes Park, CO
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $939 – $1,743
Heat risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 83°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 8/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 19 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$2,600
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Entered for statistical purposes.
Key facts
- Fitness center
- Windows w views
- End unit
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Community amenities: clubhouse, hot tub, pool, playground, fitness center, park, trails, recreation room; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
- HOA & community: Has HOA (Rams Horn Village Owner's Association); Annual association fee; Association transfer fee required; Association maintains reserves; Annual fee covers common amenities, trash, snow removal, grounds maintenance, management, utilities, exterior maintenance, cable TV, water, heat, electricity, insurance, and sewer
Exterior
- Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
- Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available (Xcel); Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet available
- Home design: Attached property; Residential timeshare; One and one-half story; North/unspecified facing direction
- Construction: Frame construction with wood siding (cedar, painted/stained); Composition roof; Built/finished above grade area approximately 1,100 (700 main, 400 upper)
- Exterior features: Patio; Balcony; Evergreen trees; Level lot; Paved surfaces; Fire hydrant within 500 feet; Road surface: asphalt; County-maintained road frontage; Minimal flood risk (C rating)
Interior
- Kitchen: No appliances included
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all conforming)
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level)
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
- Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Living room gas fireplace
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $3k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $3k).
- Recommended offer: $3k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 678.4% vs local median 1.7% in Estes Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#58 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, crime A-, health & safety B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
- Estes Park School District R-3 (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #34 of 86 in CO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Estes Park K-5 School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #581 of 966 statewide, top 61%, 471 students, 36% FRL); Estes Park High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 323 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $78 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $728 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $1k; list at $3k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 75.96% ✓
- Cap rate
- 678.42%
- Cash-on-cash
- 2400.46%
- DSCR
- 107.81
- GRM
- 0.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $427,900
- Comps found
- 2
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1565 Highway 66 #39 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 | 1,100 (0%) | 16mo | $5,750 | $5 | 87 |
| 37 Odin Way | 0.71mi | 2/2.0 | 1,025 (-7%) | 5mo | $399,000 | $389 | 52 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 127.94×
- Total profit
- $92,413
- Equity at exit
- $388
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 276.05×
- Total profit
- $200,239
- Equity at exit
- $225
Cash invested: $728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 38 Tenant-Leaning
- State Colorado
- 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 80517
- Active inventory
- 201
- Price-to-rent
- 0.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,975 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$14
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$3 /mo · $39/yr
- Insurance
- −$1
- HOA
- −$86
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$415
- Net cashflow
- $1,456
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $650
- Closing costs
- $78
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 507 Fall River Ln Unit 507C Estes Park, CO | 2.0 | 1.0 | 792 | $1,950 | $2.46 | 14d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 507 Fall River Ln Unit C Estes Park, CO | 2.0 | 1.0 | 792 | $2,000 | $2.53 | 14d | 1 | 1.39mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $86 · $1,032/yr
Listing history 22 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $2,600 Active 27 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $2,600 Active 26 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $2,600 Active 25 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $2,600 Active 24 DOM
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2026-06-14days on market $2,600 Active 22 DOM
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2026-06-10days on market $2,600 Active 19 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $2,600 Active 18 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $2,600 Active 17 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $2,600 Active 16 DOM
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2026-06-05days on market $2,600 Active 13 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $2,600 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $2,600 Active 11 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $2,600 Active 10 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $2,600 Active 9 DOM
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2026-05-30days on market $2,600 Active 8 DOM
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2026-05-22$2,600 Active
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2025-05-30soldstatus $1,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Entered for statistical purposes.
-
2025-05-07$1,500 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Entered for statistical purposes.
-
2018-10-26soldstatus $3,450 Sold 508-char remark
Show marketing remark (508 chars)
Great Pricing! 2 white weeks in a detached timeshare/Rams Horn fee simple Peak Unit. Come when it's not busy in Estes. Why buy a 2nd home, with its headaches? Instead, relax in 2-bdrm/2-bath home w/lodge pole furniture & authentic Native American antiquities. Plus have access to heated outdoor pool, 3 hot tubs, fitness center, clubhouse, playground & be 2-minutes from RMNP. Floating weeks can be traded throughout RCI's 7200 resorts w/ pd membership. Great trading power. $662 per week annual fee.
-
2018-10-08historical Active - Backup 508-char remark
Show marketing remark (508 chars)
Great Pricing! 2 white weeks in a detached timeshare/Rams Horn fee simple Peak Unit. Come when it's not busy in Estes. Why buy a 2nd home, with its headaches? Instead, relax in 2-bdrm/2-bath home w/lodge pole furniture & authentic Native American antiquities. Plus have access to heated outdoor pool, 3 hot tubs, fitness center, clubhouse, playground & be 2-minutes from RMNP. Floating weeks can be traded throughout RCI's 7200 resorts w/ pd membership. Great trading power. $662 per week annual fee.
-
2018-08-07price $3,950 508-char remark
Show marketing remark (508 chars)
Great Pricing! 2 white weeks in a detached timeshare/Rams Horn fee simple Peak Unit. Come when it's not busy in Estes. Why buy a 2nd home, with its headaches? Instead, relax in 2-bdrm/2-bath home w/lodge pole furniture & authentic Native American antiquities. Plus have access to heated outdoor pool, 3 hot tubs, fitness center, clubhouse, playground & be 2-minutes from RMNP. Floating weeks can be traded throughout RCI's 7200 resorts w/ pd membership. Great trading power. $662 per week annual fee.
-
2018-04-24$4,950 Active 508-char remark
Show marketing remark (508 chars)
Great Pricing! 2 white weeks in a detached timeshare/Rams Horn fee simple Peak Unit. Come when it's not busy in Estes. Why buy a 2nd home, with its headaches? Instead, relax in 2-bdrm/2-bath home w/lodge pole furniture & authentic Native American antiquities. Plus have access to heated outdoor pool, 3 hot tubs, fitness center, clubhouse, playground & be 2-minutes from RMNP. Floating weeks can be traded throughout RCI's 7200 resorts w/ pd membership. Great trading power. $662 per week annual fee.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 8/10 Severe 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,700
- − Mortgage interest
- −$146
- − Property taxes
- −$39
- − Insurance
- −$13
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,896
- − Management
- −$1,896
- − HOA
- −$1,032
- − Depreciation
- −$76
- Taxable income
- $18,603
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$4,465
- After-tax cash flow
- $13,011/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Estes Park School District R-3
- NCES district ID
- 0803810
- Math proficiency
- 26% ▲ 3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 47% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $57,717
- Composite
- 32.25/100
- National rank
- #5764
- State rank
- #34 of 86 in CO
Livability — Estes Park
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #58
- US rank
- #5829
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Estes Park, CO
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,093
Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 415,361 people
- By 2030
- 457,762 · +10.2%
- By 2040
- 542,310 · +30.6%
- By 2050
- 627,048 · +51.0%
- By 2075
- 833,722 · +100.7%
- By 2100
- 952,590 · +129.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 6% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Larimer
- 2024 margin
- D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -162.45%
- Current HPI
- 280.8755
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.95%
- F500 in state
- 14
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $31B |
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| Food / Agriculture | 1 | $18B |
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| Packaging | 1 | $14B |
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| Healthcare | 1 | $13B |
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| Energy | 1 | $10B |
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| Technology | 1 | $4B |
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Price history
-47.5% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-22 Listed $2,600 IRES
- 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) $1,000 IRES
- 2025-05-07 Listed $1,500 IRES
- 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $3,450 IRES
- 2018-10-08 Contingent — IRES
- 2018-08-07 Price Changed $3,950 IRES
- 2018-04-24 Listed $4,950 IRES
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…