5 Ovid St · Centereach, NY 11720

$649,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1972 $330/sqft · 5% below area Est $686k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower, Wood Floor. Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage. Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl. Low Tax. Easy To Hwy

Key facts

• Near hospital
• New kitchen
• New bathroom

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM
• NEW FLOOR
• GAS HEAT
• NEAR STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY
• NEAR HOSPITAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1972; Single-family home (built 1972)
• Construction: 1964 living area (approximate); Original construction from 1972
• Exterior features: Located in the South Setauket subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $545k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $510k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,099/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 436% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $649k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $509,857 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $686,247
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: -5.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Cayuga Ave	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,000 (+2%)	8mo	$680,000	$340	79
33 Segatogue Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,995 (+2%)	1mo	$680,000	$341	67
84 Strathmore Village Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-3%)	1mo	$785,000	$413	66
47 Bellwood Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (+7%)	1mo	$740,000	$352	64
73 Oneida Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,064 (+5%)	9mo	$655,000	$317	55
15 Patricia Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,910 (-3%)	9mo	$770,000	$403	55
35 Segatogue Ln	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (+2%)	4mo	$769,000	$385	55
40 Kent Ln	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,019 (+3%)	7mo	$635,000	$315	53
23 W Court Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,174 (+11%)	7mo	$660,000	$304	49
324 Hawkins Rd	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,794 (-9%)	6mo	$620,000	$346	48
33 Fairlawn Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (+11%)	1mo	$678,000	$310	43
4 Johnson Ct	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,721 (-12%)	4mo	$465,000	$270	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-142,574
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-171,881
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,099 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$944 /mo · $11,326/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,845

Max offer price $544,803

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Fairway Dr South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2388	$5,000	$2.09	44d	1	0.54mi
64 Neal Path Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	2.0	1252	$4,270	$3.41	1d	1	0.60mi
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	24d	1	1.01mi
103 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	3.0	4.0	2274	$5,000	$2.20	1d	1	1.14mi
25 Nostrand Ave Selden, NY	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,250	$2.07	1d	1	1.22mi
303 Arrowhead Ln Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1289	$4,975	$3.86	1d	16	1.29mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $649,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $649,000 Active 175-char remark
15. 2013-08-22
    soldstatus $300,000
16. 2013-07-10
    soldstatus $327,500 Closed 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower,Wood Floor.Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage.Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl.Low Tax.Easy To Hwy, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

17. 2013-07-10
    soldstatus $3,000

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower,Wood Floor.Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage.Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl.Low Tax.Easy To Hwy, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

18. 2013-04-15
    status Under Contract 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower, Wood Floor. Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage. Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl. Low Tax. Easy To Hwy

19. 2013-02-02
    price $325,000 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower, Wood Floor. Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage. Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl. Low Tax. Easy To Hwy

20. 2012-11-27
    price $329,000 Price Change 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower, Wood Floor. Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage. Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl. Low Tax. Easy To Hwy

21. 2012-10-17
    listed $339,000 New 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower,Wood Floor.Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage.Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl.Low Tax.Easy To Hwy, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

22. 2012-10-17
    listed $325,000

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Granite Counter Space, Island, Pull-Out Drawers Cabinets, New Appliances, Gas Cooking, Stone Tiles In Bathrooms, Jacuzzi Tubs& Shower,Wood Floor.Built-In Closet Organizers. New Gas Heating Sys, Hw Heater, A/C, Front Load Wash/Dry, New Garage Dr, Stone Steps, Window, Roof, Siding, Full Attic Storage.Asking 305K-325K, Best Value In 3 Villschl.Low Tax.Easy To Hwy, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

23. 2012-06-04
    soldstatus $220,000
24. 1999-04-21
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,326 · $944/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,326 · $944/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$11,326
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,895
• − Management: −$4,895
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$18,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+380.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $649,000 FSBO.com
• 2013-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-10 Sold (MLS) $3,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-10 Sold (MLS) $327,500 MLSLI
• 2013-04-15 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-02-02 Price Changed $325,000 MLSLI
• 2012-11-27 Price Changed $329,000 MLSLI
• 2012-10-17 Listed $339,000 MLSLI
• 2012-10-17 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,326 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.