3648 Walnut Ridge Dr · Grand Prairie, TX 76065

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2022 6,839 sqft lot $198/sqft · 10% below area Est $447k · 10% under $13/mo HOA ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

like-new 2022 single-story in Greenway Trails-one of Midlothian ISD’s most sought-after communities. Features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and over 2,000 sq. ft. with an open-concept design perfect for today’s lifestyle. The gourmet kitchen shines with a large island, gas cooktop, pantry, and stainless-steel appliances, flowing seamlessly into the spacious living area. The private primary suite includes dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or an office. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio with fenced yard and sprinkler system. The 2-car garage features epoxy flooring, and smart home upg

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• EPOXY FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool, jogging/bike path, and playground nearby
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee ($150) covering full use of facilities; HOA managed by Vision Community Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage with epoxy flooring and automatic door opener
• Security: Burglar alarm; Prewired security; Security system (leased); Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Curbs; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Subdivision lot (Greenway Trls Ph 5)
• Construction: Built in 2022 (preowned); Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Smart home features
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Patio; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Interior, level lot; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Electric oven; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Solid surface countertops (non-natural); Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (1st level) with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms (1st level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Smart home system; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Grand Prairie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J A Vitovsky El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 22% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midlothian ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,792 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.46%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,534
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -10.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3648 Walnut Ridge Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,018 (0%)	1mo	$399,900	$198	99
3432 Cornerstone Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,009 (-0%)	1mo	$385,000	$192	75
3608 William Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-6%)	4mo	$425,000	$223	73
3711 Autumncrest St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (-7%)	2mo	$399,900	$212	70
3460 April Breeze Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,069 (+2%)	1mo	$399,500	$193	68
3543 Randall Ter	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,903 (-6%)	2mo	$450,000	$236	66
10384 Sarasota St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,896 (-6%)	3mo	$409,990	$216	66
10816 Eva Mae Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-6%)	2mo	$365,000	$193	64
3711 Walnut Ridge Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,313 (+15%)	3mo	$429,000	$185	63
10357 Sarasota St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,896 (-6%)	1mo	$421,990	$223	62
10408 Sunset Shore Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,272 (+13%)	2mo	$437,990	$193	56
3440 Cornerstone Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,305 (+14%)	2mo	$415,000	$180	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-86,796
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-90,705
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,275/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,755

Max offer price $326,367

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-303	+0% $-416	+5% $-529	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-671	-5% $-544	+0% $-416	+5% $-289	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-315	base $-416	+0.5pp $-520	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3668 Walnut Ridge Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2654	$3,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.05mi
3628 Walnut Ridge Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2283	$3,500	$1.53	0d	1	0.07mi
3724 Twin Pines Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2389	$3,200	$1.34	25d	1	0.26mi
3722 Autumncrest St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2457	$3,100	$1.26	8d	1	0.30mi
1612 Birch St Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2593	$3,399	$1.31	25d	1	1.42mi
4415 Ashbury Ln Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$2,325	$1.22	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Option Contract 1037-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $399,900 Active 1037-char remark
3. 2025-12-05
   price $409,950
4. 2025-11-14
   price $409,975
5. 2025-11-06
   price $409,990
6. 2025-10-30
   price $409,995
7. 2025-10-16
   price $419,995
8. 2025-10-02
   price $419,999
9. 2025-09-19
   price $425,999
10. 2025-08-23
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,275 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,275 · $690/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$8,275
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,099
• − Management: −$3,099
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$11,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grand Prairie

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1660

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Prairie, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 201,439
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $399,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $409,950 NTREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $409,975 NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $409,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $409,995 NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $419,995 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $419,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $425,999 NTREIS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $425,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+123.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,275 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.