800 Woodland Trl · Mandan, ND 58554

$89,000

3 bd · None ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large lot
• All appliances
• Move in ready

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MOVE IN READY
• ALL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.7% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,880
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 6th Ave SE	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,229 (+1%)	14mo	$254,900	$207	78
1313 9th Ave SE	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+3%)	0mo	$159,900	$127	73
1208 9th Ave SE	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	20mo	$184,900	$165	52
1413 15th St SE	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+10%)	12mo	$239,999	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $14,827
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $71,846
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58554

• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $388	+0% $357	+5% $326	+10% $295
Rent	-10% $260	-5% $308	+0% $357	+5% $405	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $379	base $357	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 1st St NW Mandan, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,150	$1.30	22d	11	0.81mi
406 4th St NW Mandan, ND	3.0	1.5	1208	$1,200	$0.99	22d	1	1.11mi
611 9th Ave SW Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	942	$1,125	$1.19	22d	1	1.17mi
1504 Shannon Dr NE Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 77 DOM
19. 2026-03-10
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$731
• After-tax cash flow: $3,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its current value. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof structure
• Major exterior — No visible siding or paint
• Major flooring — No visible flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls or paint
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen
• Major systems — No visible HVAC or mechanical systems

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior would enhance curb appeal and value
• Resale flooring and interior walls/paint — Upgrading these elements would make the home more attractive and functional
• Resale bathroom and kitchen updates — Modernizing these spaces would increase the home's marketability
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading these systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible siding or paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls or paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible HVAC or mechanical systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior would enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale flooring and interior walls/paint — Upgrading these elements would make the home more attractive and functional ↑
• Resale bathroom and kitchen updates — Modernizing these spaces would increase the home's marketability ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading these systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mandan 1
• NCES district ID: 3811820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5692
• State rank: #32 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandan

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandan, ND
• County: Morton County · 29,479 people
• City population: 29,479
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,479
• Household income: $80,120
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,682 people
• By 2030: 39,967 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 46,921 · +27.9%
• By 2050: 54,157 · +47.6%
• By 2075: 73,661 · +100.8%
• By 2100: 89,885 · +145.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 75.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.81%
• Current HPI: 137.8984
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $89,000 Fizber.com