9735 Moses Rd · Elk Creek, PA 16435

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1900 Fair condition 2.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy country living in Springboro with this ranch style home offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Relax on the covered patio and take in the peaceful natural surroundings. Inside, the home features a large family room with a pellet stove and a separate living room with a coal stove, providing warmth and rustic charm throughout. The interior is ready for updating, giving you the perfect opportunity to customize the space to your taste. Major improvements are already complete, including a brand new metal roof and a newer furnace (3 years old), providing a solid foundation for your future updates. The property includes two outbuildings, two working wells plus a spare, and has been newly subdivi

Key facts

• Large family room
• Metal roof
• Newer furnace

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• PELLET STOVE
• COAL STOVE
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible entrance; Barn(s) and outbuilding(s) on the property; Level lot of approximately 2.34 acres (approx. dimensions 288 x 347)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Built with a full basement
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Heat pump and propane heating
• Interior features: Two fireplaces (see remarks); Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northwestern SD (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #333 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-515
• Equity at exit: $27,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $20,766
• Equity at exit: $27,317

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16435

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $199	+0% $158	+5% $116	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $108	+0% $158	+5% $207	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $188	base $158	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$19
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This ranch-style home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. Upgrades such as new flooring, paint, countertops, and windows will significantly enhance the home's appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed subfloor in kitchen — Structural damage
• Major Missing countertops in kitchen — Aesthetic and functional
• Major Worn carpet in living areas — Aesthetic and comfort
• Major Worn paint in interior walls — Aesthetic and durability
• Moderate Older windows — Energy efficiency

Value-add opportunities

• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and comfort
• Both New paint — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed subfloor in kitchen · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing countertops in kitchen · Aesthetic and functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn carpet in living areas · Aesthetic and comfort	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn paint in interior walls · Aesthetic and durability	Major	$15,000–50,000
Older windows · Energy efficiency	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$63,000–215,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both New paint — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwestern SD
• NCES district ID: 4217880
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4912
• State rank: #333 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elk Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford · 5,758 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,678
• Household income: $56,400
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.5

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Current HPI: 101.5139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $120,000 GEBOR