5043 Gray St · North Rose, NY 14516

$149,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1900 0.44 ac lot Est $190k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5043 Gray Street -Where opportunity meets charm! This classic colonial offers 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and bright, sun-filled spaces throughout. The living room features a cozy wood-burning stove, and the formal dining room is perfect for hosting family and friends. The spacious eat-in kitchen includes all appliances and gives you the room to create the heart of the home you’ve been envisioning. Convenience shines with first-floor laundry, a powder room, and a flexible office/bedroom option on the main level. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes a bonus room—an ideal nursery, walk-in closet, home office, or whatever flex space your life calls for. An additional bedroo

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• First floor laundry
• Bonus room

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FLEXIBLE OFFICE BEDROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electric; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Wood siding; Spray foam insulation; Copper plumbing; Stone foundation; Existing (year built details)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms including living space, office and laundry
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#904 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: commute D, schools D-, crime F.
• North Rose-Wolcott Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #514 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $150k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.04%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,240
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4159 N Main St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+6%)	7mo	$125,000	$72	71
5139 Gray St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+5%)	11mo	$200,290	$116	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $21,454
• Equity at exit: $54,272

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $70,884
• Equity at exit: $74,583

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14516

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $149,900
16. 2025-12-04
    listed $154,900 Active
17. 2025-08-12
    historical
18. 2025-07-02
    listed $166,000 Active
19. 1999-02-26
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $2,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Rose-Wolcott Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616980
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,545
• Composite: 34.7/100
• National rank: #5140
• State rank: #514 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Rose

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #904
• US rank: #17636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Rose, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,184

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 7% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Current HPI: 217.5757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+212.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-12 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $166,000 UNYREIS
• 1999-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.