8849 N Grape Creek Rd · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,671 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1974 0.51 ac lot $138/sqft · 9% above area Est $212k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your new home? Here it is! Large living area with great fireplace! Mirrored open closet is a great area for growing plants! Galley kitchen with good storage and counter space! Dining room open to living room and kitchen! Bedrooms offer large closets and natural light! Double pane windows and sliding doors to backyard! Covered patio for relaxing and enjoying the 1/2 acre lot! Two outbuildings! This could be your's!

Key facts

• Large living area
• Galley kitchen
• Double pane windows

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• MIRRORED OPEN CLOSET
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,868 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,878
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 8.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8577 Marigold Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+1%)	9mo	$285,000	$169	76
8485 Burrell Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-1%)	14mo	$225,000	$136	69
8597 Pansy Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,752 (+5%)	1mo	$265,000	$151	69
8586 Marigold Ave	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-10%)	2mo	$160,000	$106	66
8850 Blue Quail Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-12%)	18mo	$250,000	$169	63
8485 Marigold Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-10%)	12mo	$225,000	$149	55
7490 Canna St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-14%)	5mo	$110,000	$77	54
7454 Canna St	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,426 (-15%)	2mo	$239,000	$168	48
7585 Verbena St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-13%)	6mo	$189,000	$130	44
8625 Pansy Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-15%)	22mo	$184,900	$130	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $120,271
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $372,432
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,829/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $203,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-87	+0% $-152	+5% $-217	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-217	+0% $-152	+5% $-87	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-93	base $-152	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $230,000 Pending 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    status Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Looking for your new home? Here it is! Large living area with great fireplace! Mirrored open closet is a great area for growing plants! Galley kitchen with good storage and counter space! Dining room open to living room and kitchen! Bedrooms offer large closets and natural light! Double pane windows and sliding doors to backyard! Covered patio for relaxing and enjoying the 1/2 acre lot! Two outbuildings! This could be your's!

18. 2026-04-09
    status Pending 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Looking for your new home? Here it is! Large living area with great fireplace! Mirrored open closet is a great area for growing plants! Galley kitchen with good storage and counter space! Dining room open to living room and kitchen! Bedrooms offer large closets and natural light! Double pane windows and sliding doors to backyard! Covered patio for relaxing and enjoying the 1/2 acre lot! Two outbuildings! This could be your's!

19. 2026-01-20
    listed $230,000 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Looking for your new home? Here it is! Large living area with great fireplace! Mirrored open closet is a great area for growing plants! Galley kitchen with good storage and counter space! Dining room open to living room and kitchen! Bedrooms offer large closets and natural light! Double pane windows and sliding doors to backyard! Covered patio for relaxing and enjoying the 1/2 acre lot! Two outbuildings! This could be your's!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,380/yr (+$198/mo · 130.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,829
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grape Creek, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• City population: 81,357
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2026-04-09 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-01-20 Listed $230,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,829 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.