7373 E US Hwy 60 -- #409 · Gold Canyon, AZ 85118

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured · 188 Days on market

Built 2014 Est $179k · at est. ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Montesa, a gated 55+ Active Adult Community showcasing breathtaking views of the Superstition Mountains! This spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 1,540 sq ft of comfortable living with a 2-car carport and an open floorplan filled with natural light from large windows throughout. The great room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, tile backsplash, upgraded maple cabinets providing abundant storage, GE stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, recessed lighting, and skylights. Large breakfast room with sliding glass doors that open to a generous patio area. Additional highlights include tile flooring, a large laundry room with folding table, washer/dryer, and a

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.9% in Gold Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#225 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 425 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.82%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,640
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7373 E US Hwy 60 -- #409	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,540 (0%)	1mo	$166,500	$108	99
7373 E US Highway 60 -- #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,558 (+1%)	9mo	$180,000	$116	91
7373 E US Hwy 60 -- #88	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+12%)	20mo	$220,000	$127	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $50,359
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $146,177
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85118

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,369	-5% $1,307	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,183	+10% $1,122
Rent	-10% $997	-5% $1,121	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,369	+10% $1,494
Rate	-1.0pp $1,335	-0.5pp $1,291	base $1,245	+0.5pp $1,199	+1.0pp $1,152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6497 S Ginty Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1673	$4,300	$2.57	24d	1	0.16mi
6382 S Fairway Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1570	$3,900	$2.48	24d	1	0.38mi
8320 E Masters Rd Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1732	$3,900	$2.25	1d	1	0.50mi
6816 S Russet Sky Way Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.73mi
6494 S Foothills Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,300	$1.59	17d	1	1.00mi
8401 E Golden Cholla Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	2229	$1,800	$0.81	24d	1	1.01mi
8950 E Yucca Blossom Dr Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1952	$1,999	$1.02	5d	1	1.14mi
6838 E Las Animas Trl Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	3.0	1638	$3,500	$2.14	5d	1	1.31mi
4670 S Jalapa Ln Gold Canyon, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$4,300	$2.42	24d	1	1.39mi
9797 E La Palma Ave Unit 1 Gold Canyon, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	19d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $179,000
3. 2025-10-17
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2025-09-06
   historical
5. 2025-09-05
   status Active
6. 2025-07-03
   listed Under Contract Accepting Backups
7. 2025-07-03
   historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
8. 2025-04-25
   price $210,000
9. 2025-01-09
   listed $227,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,017
• − Management: −$3,017
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $12,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,086
• After-tax cash flow: $11,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gold Canyon

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #21732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gold Canyon, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 14,932
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,932
• Household income: $86,393
• Rent vs Own: 8.4% rent · 91.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 160.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.27%
• Current HPI: 255.6958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $227,500 ARMLS