915 Adair St · Mandeville, LA 70448

$130,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors, do you need a property added to your portfolio? Come bring your ideas to life, whether it's a rental, flip, business or to owner occupy. This property is zoned HC-2 and minutes from the Causeway bridge, parks, lakefront, shopping and restaurants. Located right across the street is the Tammany trace. Backs up to Mi Mamacita's Restaurant and behind the Sign Shop. Bring cash offers only.

Key facts

• Zoned hc-2
• Parking
• Built 1960

Tags

• ZONED HC-2
• MINUTES FROM CAUSEWAY BRIDGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Located outside city limits

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Property reported in poor condition; Raised foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.5% in Mandeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.22%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,481
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2313 Orleans St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+5%)	2mo	$130,000	$109	80
1105 Forest Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+15%)	8mo	$235,000	$179	44
2272 Henry Clay St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+10%)	5mo	$234,900	$188	40
2465 Dupard St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (-9%)	21mo	$173,500	$168	34
1820 Valmont St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,279 (+12%)	13mo	$230,000	$180	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $25,296
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $71,279
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70448

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $268/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $863	-5% $826	+0% $790	+5% $605	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $709	+0% $790	+5% $870	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $823	base $790	+0.5pp $756	+1.0pp $722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 McNamara St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,900	$1.35	18d	1	0.37mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	45d	1	0.42mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	13d	1	0.42mi
518 Ramon St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,550	$1.07	13d	1	0.47mi
1819 Orleans St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,895	$1.57	25d	1	0.61mi
602 Foy St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,500	$1.84	4d	1	0.81mi
1555 Marigny Ave Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,000	$1.45	45d	1	0.85mi
1349 Clausel St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	4d	1	0.96mi
1605 Dupard St Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,200	$1.47	13d	1	0.98mi
102 Trace Loop Unit 1 Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.10mi
98 Trace Loop Unit 1 Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	18d	1	1.10mi
104 Trace Loop Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.12mi
4000 Florida St Mandeville, LA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,495	$1.45	16d	4	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $130,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Investors, do you need a property added to your portfolio? Come bring your ideas to life, whether it's a rental, flip, business or to owner occupy. This property is zoned HC-2 and minutes from the Causeway bridge, parks, lakefront, shopping and restaurants. Located right across the street is the Tammany trace. Backs up to Mi Mamacita's Restaurant and behind the Sign Shop. Bring cash offers only.

16. 2026-05-26
    listed $130,000 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Investors, do you need a property added to your portfolio? Come bring your ideas to life, whether it's a rental, flip, business or to owner occupy. This property is zoned HC-2 and minutes from the Causeway bridge, parks, lakefront, shopping and restaurants. Located right across the street is the Tammany trace. Backs up to Mi Mamacita's Restaurant and behind the Sign Shop. Bring cash offers only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $268 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 166.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$268
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $7,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Mandeville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 50,537
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 26,338
• Household income: $95,682
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 320.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.97%
• Current HPI: 179.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 GSREIN

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $268 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.