915 Adair St · Mandeville, LA 70448

$130,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1960 Poor condition $114/sqft · 63% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors, do you need a property added to your portfolio? Come bring your ideas to life, whether it's a rental, flip, business or to owner occupy. This property is zoned HC-2 and minutes from the Causeway bridge, parks, lakefront, shopping and restaurants. Located right across the street is the Tammany trace. Backs up to Mi Mamacita's Restaurant and behind the Sign Shop. Bring cash offers only.

Key facts

• Zoned hc-2
• Parking
• Built 1960

Tags

• ZONED HC-2
• MINUTES FROM CAUSEWAY BRIDGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $835 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.8% in Mandeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marigny Elementary School (456 students, 33% FRL); Lake Harbor Middle School (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 602 students, 24% FRL); Mandeville High School (math 59% / reading 63%, grade C+, #19 of 265 statewide, top 7%, 2,259 students, 22% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Tammany Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.52%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,523
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -63.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2313 Orleans St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+5%)	5mo	$130,000	$109	78
1105 Forest Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+15%)	11mo	$235,000	$179	41
2272 Henry Clay St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+10%)	8mo	$234,900	$188	38
2465 Dupard St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (-9%)	24mo	$173,500	$168	32
1820 Valmont St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,279 (+12%)	16mo	$230,000	$180	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $28,176
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $77,521
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,000 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +50.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70448

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $268/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $908	-5% $871	+0% $835	+5% $650	+10% $605
Rent	-10% $675	-5% $755	+0% $835	+5% $914	+10% $994
Rate	-1.0pp $900	-0.5pp $868	base $835	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 McNamara St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,900	$1.35	113d	1	0.37mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	107d	1	0.42mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	139d	1	0.42mi
215 Elmwood St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	63d	1	0.44mi
518 Ramon St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,500	$1.04	75d	1	0.47mi
518 Ramon St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,550	$1.07	107d	1	0.47mi
509 Wilkinson St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	75d	1	0.50mi
1307 Highway 59 Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	93d	1	0.59mi
1819 Orleans St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,895	$1.57	119d	1	0.61mi
2236 Labarre St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	10d	1	0.69mi
602 Foy St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,500	$1.84	99d	1	0.81mi
1670 Orleans St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	67d	1	0.82mi
1555 Marigny Ave Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,000	$1.45	139d	1	0.85mi
1349 Clausel St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,795	$1.38	58d	1	0.96mi
1605 Dupard St Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,200	$1.47	107d	1	0.98mi
102 Trace Loop Unit 1 Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	139d	1	1.10mi
98 Trace Loop Unit 1 Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	113d	1	1.10mi
104 Trace Loop Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	139d	1	1.12mi
1366 Valmont St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,850	$1.60	0d	1	1.14mi
1338 America St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,950	$1.68	10d	1	1.15mi
1326 America St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,800	$1.73	2d	1	1.16mi
1314 America St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,750	$1.50	10d	1	1.18mi
1314 America St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,800	$1.54	67d	1	1.18mi
443 Juliette Ln Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	71d	1	1.19mi
324 Fountains Park Blvd Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	67d	1	1.21mi
111 Trace Loop Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	7d	1	1.22mi
234 Trace Loop Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,850	$1.37	10d	1	1.27mi
154 Gallier Ct Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	10d	1	1.35mi
2311 Tortoise Dr Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	81d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Block constructionAsphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rectangular lotLocated outside city limits

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 roomsProperty reported in poor conditionRaised foundation

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $130,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $130,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $130,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $130,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $130,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $130,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $130,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $130,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 97 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $130,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $130,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $130,000 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $130,000 Active 91 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $130,000 Active 90 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $130,000 Active 87 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $130,000 Active 86 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $130,000 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $130,000 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $130,000 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $130,000 Active 78 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $130,000 Active 77 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $130,000 Active 76 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 70 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 66 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $130,000 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $268 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 166.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$268
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $8,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,002
• After-tax cash flow: $8,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $57,000–$102,600 screening

This property requires extensive renovation, including structural repairs, HVAC replacement, and landscaping improvements. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be missing or damaged, exposing the structure underneath.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows are broken and missing, indicating a significant issue that needs immediate attention.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The interior of the house is in disarray, with debris and missing components, suggesting extensive electrical damage.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The interior of the house is in disarray, with debris and missing components, suggesting extensive plumbing damage.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house is in disarray, with debris and missing components, suggesting extensive exterior damage.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — The siding is visibly damaged and needs to be replaced.
• Major foundation — The foundation is exposed and in poor condition, indicating potential structural issues.
• Major roof — The roof is in poor condition and likely leaking.
• Major flooring — The flooring is damaged and needs to be replaced.
• Major HVAC — The HVAC system is non-functional and needs to be replaced.
• Major electrical — The electrical system is exposed and in disrepair, indicating potential safety hazards.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Landscaping and exterior painting — Aesthetic improvements can significantly enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Foundation repair — Stabilizing the foundation will address structural issues and prevent further damage. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Trace Elementary School A- LA #27/646 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle Mandeville Junior High School B+ LA #9/218 Nat'l #1,362/14,009 High Mandeville High School C+ LA #19/265 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Mandeville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 286,725 people
• City population: 50,537
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 26,338
• Household income: $95,682
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.97%
• Current HPI: 179.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Block constructionAsphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rectangular lotLocated outside city limits

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 roomsProperty reported in poor conditionRaised foundation

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 GSREIN

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $268 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.