ESTERO Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$253,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 408 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of the Estero floor plan, a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enter through the inviting front porch into a welcoming foyer, where a secondary bedroom is located at the front-ideal for guests or a home office. A full secondary bathroom and utility room are conveniently nearby. Continue into the open-concept heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining room, and family room seamlessly connect. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a large island, and a spacious pantry, making it perfect for entertaining or casual family meals. At the rear of the home, the primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat complete with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large shower. Two additional secondary bedrooms are located nearby, offering plenty of space for family or guests. This smart, functional layout is perfect for modern living and growing households. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Heated lazy river
• Luxurious pool

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• LUXURIOUS POOL
• HEATED LAZY RIVER
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT DESIGNS
• MODERN FINISHES
• CLOSE TO PARKS

🏗️ New construction. The $253,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,551.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 408 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,511 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 408 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,551
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: -13.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2415 Imperial Jade Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,573 (0%)	9mo	$249,990	$159	92
8738 Jade Hill Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,770 (+12%)	1mo	$349,990	$198	78
8918 Ice Quartz Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+3%)	6mo	$303,900	$188	76
8902 Ice Quartz Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-10%)	4mo	$290,900	$205	67
8930 Ice Quartz Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+13%)	4mo	$313,900	$177	66
2558 Green Jasper Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-13%)	2mo	$299,900	$218	63
2419 Jasper Breeze Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-10%)	7mo	$277,990	$197	62
2518 Peacock Ore Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+13%)	9mo	$299,990	$169	62
7839 Evening Emerald Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+13%)	9mo	$299,990	$169	61
2511 Night Emerald Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+10%)	7mo	$292,990	$169	44
2506 American Ruby Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+13%)	6mo	$306,990	$173	39
2527 Night Emerald Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+13%)	8mo	$298,990	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-37,583
• Equity at exit: $43,918

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-38,707
• Equity at exit: $25,467

Cash invested: $82,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $294,551

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $376	+0% $274	+5% $172	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $158	+0% $274	+5% $389	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $349	base $274	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,638
• Closing costs: $8,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	19d	1	0.08mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	45d	1	0.24mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	24d	1	0.96mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	1d	1	1.31mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.37mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	24d	1	1.41mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	1.42mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $253,990 Active 408 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,990 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,990 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,990 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,990 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,990 Active 400 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,990 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $253,990 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $253,990 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $253,990 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $253,990 Active 388 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $253,990 Active 387 DOM
16. 2025-05-21
    price $253,990 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Discover the charm of the Estero floor plan, a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enter through the inviting front porch into a welcoming foyer, where a secondary bedroom is located at the front-ideal for guests or a home office. A full secondary bathroom and utility room are conveniently nearby. Continue into the open-concept heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining room, and family room seamlessly connect. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a large island, and a spacious pantry, making it perfect for entertaining or casual family meals. At the rear of the home, the primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat complete with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large shower. Two additional secondary bedrooms are located nearby, offering plenty of space for family or guests. This smart, functional layout is perfect for modern living and growing households. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

17. 2025-05-09
    listed $269,990 Active 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Discover the charm of the Estero floor plan, a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Enter through the inviting front porch into a welcoming foyer, where a secondary bedroom is located at the front-ideal for guests or a home office. A full secondary bathroom and utility room are conveniently nearby. Continue into the open-concept heart of the home, where the kitchen, dining room, and family room seamlessly connect. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a large island, and a spacious pantry, making it perfect for entertaining or casual family meals. At the rear of the home, the primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat complete with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom featuring dual sinks and a large shower. Two additional secondary bedrooms are located nearby, offering plenty of space for family or guests. This smart, functional layout is perfect for modern living and growing households. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,499
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$1,473
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$8,569
• Taxable loss: −$1,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in the Estero floor plan is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout with stainless steel appliances and a large island in the kitchen, and a well-maintained exterior with a clean driveway and landscaping. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-09 Listed $269,990 Zillow