Plan 1943 Plan · Houston, TX 77406

$317,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Den * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * Gas range * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Extra storage space * 5-panel interior doors * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• LOW-E WINDOWS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1943); Located at 25403 Tanner Falls Dr, Richmond, TX 77406
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1943 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $317,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,419.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,067 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,419
• List price: $317,995
• Delta: -6.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25127 Farmdale Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-2%)	10mo	$350,000	$184	75
25410 Western Sage Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,158 (+11%)	4mo	$345,500	$160	74
25319 Western Sage Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-15%)	9mo	$299,000	$181	63
10215 Hidden Lake Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,116 (+9%)	19mo	$890,000	$421	52
11010 Heartland Grove Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+4%)	3mo	$275,000	$137	52
10911 Reston Point Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,074 (+7%)	17mo	$355,000	$171	41
26003 Horizon Star Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-11%)	17mo	$349,990	$203	33
26007 Hawking Vista Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-12%)	19mo	$340,000	$200	28
10502 Skyward Estate Trl	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-11%)	20mo	$349,990	$203	28
25910 Hawking Vista Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-12%)	22mo	$389,408	$229	28
25930 Dawning Torch Trce	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-11%)	18mo	$367,990	$214	26
10434 Skyward Estate Trl	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (+11%)	19mo	$389,990	$181	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-81,598
• Equity at exit: $50,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-124,760
• Equity at exit: $29,347

Cash invested: $95,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,780
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,091/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,969

Max offer price $296,150

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-182	+0% $-299	+5% $-416	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-401	+0% $-299	+5% $-197	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-213	base $-299	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,855
• Closing costs: $10,183
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	45d	1	0.81mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	45d	1	0.89mi
11602 Darby Chase Trl Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,550	$1.34	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $317,995 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,995 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,995 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,995 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,995 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,995 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $317,995 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,995 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $317,995 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $317,995 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,995 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,995 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,995 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $317,995 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $315,995 417-char remark
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $312,995 Active 417-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,013
• − Property taxes: −$5,091
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − Depreciation: −$9,874
• Taxable loss: −$9,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent updates and a smart home setup, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B