1514 St Augustine Dr · Mission, TX 78572

$67,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1979 6,249 sqft lot $64/sqft · 25% below area Est $90k · 25% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENJOY A FRESH NEW START IN WINTER GREEN ESTATES, conveniently located just north of the expressway off Bryan Rd. in Mission! This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home comes fully equipped with all the appliances, mini-split ACs in each room, and a large shed for all your storage needs. Updates include: new vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, some new sub-flooring, new skirting around the perimeter, a new shed roof, an 8-year old metal roof, 2-year old new plumbing, and a new electric water heater. This South Texas home was well-loved, and it's ready for you to do the same!

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Metal roof
• Mini-split acs

Tags

• MINI-SPLIT ACS
• LARGE SHED
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.24%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $67,900
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $29,491
• Equity at exit: $10,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $69,532
• Equity at exit: $5,871

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,900 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $67,900 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,900 Option 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,900 Option 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $67,900 Option 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,900 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,900 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,900 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,900 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,900 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,900 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,900 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    price $67,900 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    ENJOY A FRESH NEW START IN WINTER GREEN ESTATES, conveniently located just north of the expressway off Bryan Rd. in Mission! This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home comes fully equipped with all the appliances, mini-split ACs in each room, and a large shed for all your storage needs. Updates include: new vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, some new sub-flooring, new skirting around the perimeter, a new shed roof, an 8-year old metal roof, 2-year old new plumbing, and a new electric water heater. This South Texas home was well-loved, and it's ready for you to do the same!

17. 2026-01-01
    listed $78,900 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    ENJOY A FRESH NEW START IN WINTER GREEN ESTATES, conveniently located just north of the expressway off Bryan Rd. in Mission! This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home comes fully equipped with all the appliances, mini-split ACs in each room, and a large shed for all your storage needs. Updates include: new vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, some new sub-flooring, new skirting around the perimeter, a new shed roof, an 8-year old metal roof, 2-year old new plumbing, and a new electric water heater. This South Texas home was well-loved, and it's ready for you to do the same!

18. 2025-12-03
    status Active
19. 2025-11-28
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-23
    historical Option
21. 2025-07-22
    status Active
22. 2025-07-15
    status Active
23. 2025-04-19
    price $79,900
24. 2025-02-13
    price $85,000
25. 2025-01-01
    listed $89,000 Active
26. 2024-03-28
    listed $99,000 Active
27. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $7,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,838
• After-tax cash flow: $6,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $67,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $78,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-28 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-23 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-22 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-15 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $79,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $89,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $99,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2006-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,875 · +23.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.