36 Champlain Dr · Mineville, NY 12956

$59,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1968 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older well maintained mobile home with a large lot (possible extra lot). Owner will hold mortage for qualified buyer with down payment.

Key facts

• Town water sewer
• Paved driveway
• New 2 car garage

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• NEW 2 CAR GARAGE
• GENERAC
• TOWN WATER SEWER
• DECK
• HEATED AC WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#891 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $55,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.22%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $59,520
• Equity at exit: $53,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.31×
• Total profit: $153,776
• Equity at exit: $114,624

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12956

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $510

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $446	+0% $430	+5% $413	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $388	+0% $430	+5% $471	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $445	base $430	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-10
   soldstatus $55,000
2. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $59,000 Active
4. 2012-08-03
   soldstatus $28,000
5. 2012-07-18
   soldstatus $28,000 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   Older well maintained mobile home with a large lot (possible extra lot). Owner will hold mortage for qualified buyer with down payment.

6. 2010-07-03
   listed $39,900 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   Older well maintained mobile home with a large lot (possible extra lot). Owner will hold mortage for qualified buyer with down payment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $4,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $4,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mineville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #891
• US rank: #17259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,538

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 5% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 328.4682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-30 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $59,000 Global MLS
• 2012-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-18 Sold (MLS) $28,000 Global MLS
• 2010-07-03 Listed $39,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · -52.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.