4529 Pennington Ave · Baltimore, MD 21226

$90,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · Townhouse public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1920 $49/sqft · 24% below area Est $119k · 24% under ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 198 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.92%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,171
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -24.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $119,911
• Equity at exit: $66,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.33×
• Total profit: $285,577
• Equity at exit: $131,265

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21226

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,607 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,740/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $1,321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,372	-5% $1,347	+0% $1,321	+5% $1,296	+10% $1,270
Rent	-10% $1,115	-5% $1,218	+0% $1,321	+5% $1,424	+10% $1,527
Rate	-1.0pp $1,367	-0.5pp $1,344	base $1,321	+0.5pp $1,298	+1.0pp $1,274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
166 Drydock Way Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1980	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.95mi
6603 Polynesian Ln Glen Burnie, MD	4.0	2.5	1676	$2,819	$1.68	3d	1	1.44mi
6615 Buskin Ln Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,499	$1.33	44d	1	1.44mi
3822 6th St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	3.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-03-18
    price $90,000
15. 2026-02-09
    price $95,000
16. 2026-02-03
    price $97,500
17. 2025-12-02
    listed $100,000 Active
18. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $600,000
19. 2018-04-17
    historical
20. 2018-04-17
    historical Temporarily Off-Market
21. 2018-03-10
    price $15,000
22. 2018-03-10
    price
23. 2018-02-08
    listed $30,000 Active
24. 2018-02-08
    listed Active
25. 2014-08-15
    historical Withdrawn
26. 2014-08-14
    historical
27. 2014-05-20
    price
28. 2013-12-20
    listed Active
29. 2013-12-20
    listed $175,000
30. 2007-01-19
    soldstatus $175,000
31. 2006-05-06
    historical
32. 2006-01-05
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,740
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $15,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,702
• After-tax cash flow: $12,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• City population: 588,727
• Population (ZIP): 6,593

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.75%
• Current HPI: 318.79
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-48.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $97,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-04-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-10 Price Changed $15,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-10 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2018-02-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-02-08 Listed $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-08-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2013-12-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-12-20 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-01-05 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,740 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.