2405 Copper Way · Carlsbad, CA 92009

$1,399,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,196 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2010 $637/sqft · 14% below area Est $1634k · 14% under $333/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

Key facts

• Modern architecture
• Upstairs loft
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORY SCALE MODEL
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• MULTIGENERATIONAL LIVING
• MODERN ARCHITECTURE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ELONGATED STONE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the La Costa subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse; HOA dues $333 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Two-story
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Community pool; Barbecue

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Barbecue (exterior but commonly used for outdoor living)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-54k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $601k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $589k (57.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $589k (57.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($164k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $830k; list at $1.40M implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $589,394 (57.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.84%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 19.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,633,794
• List price: $1,399,000
• Delta: -14.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.97% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-252,580
• Equity at exit: $475,160

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-282,425
• Equity at exit: $629,567

Cash invested: $391,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92009

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 19.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax from tax record: −$921 /mo · $11,055/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$333
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,238
• Net cashflow: $-4,517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,612

Max offer price $600,974

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $349,750
• Closing costs: $41,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6406 Kinglet Way Carlsbad, CA	4.0	2.5	2203	$5,700	$2.59	2d	1	0.47mi
6690 Spartina Ct Carlsbad, CA	5.0	4.5	2700	$6,750	$2.50	24d	1	0.54mi
1839 Arroyo Willow Ln Carlsbad, CA	3.0	3.5	1829	$4,945	$2.70	24d	1	0.65mi
2657 Cazadero Dr #59 Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2295	$5,299	$2.31	43d	1	1.48mi
7264 Estrella de Mar Rd Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2304	$6,300	$2.73	1d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $333 · $3,996/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $1,399,000 Active 1936-char remark
2. 2020-07-01
   soldstatus $830,000 Closed Sale 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

3. 2020-07-01
   soldstatus $830,000 Sold 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

4. 2020-07-01
   soldstatus $830,000

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

5. 2020-05-28
   status Pending Sale 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

6. 2020-05-28
   status Pending 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

7. 2020-05-19
   listed $849,900 Active 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

8. 2020-05-19
   listed $849,900 Active 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own in the highly desirable community of Solterra at La Costa Greens!! This property shows true pride of ownership and features 4 bedrooms (one downstairs), 3 bathrooms, loft, huge kitchen open to the living room, plantation shutters, crown molding, tile flooring, and a 2 car garage. Great backyard that would be perfect for entertaining with your built in bbq with island, fire-pit, patio, and artificial grass. Located in close proximity to freeway access, schools, and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,055 · $921/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,055 · $921/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,366
• − Property taxes: −$11,055
• − Insurance: −$6,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,658
• − Management: −$5,658
• − HOA: −$3,996
• − Depreciation: −$40,698
• Taxable loss: −$81,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-34,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,739
• Household income: $164,182
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Current HPI: 448.8771
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+64.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $1,399,000 SDMLS
• 2020-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $830,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-01 Sold (MLS) $830,000 SDMLS
• 2020-07-01 Sold (MLS) $830,000 CRMLS
• 2020-05-28 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-05-28 Pending — SDMLS
• 2020-05-19 Listed $849,900 SDMLS
• 2020-05-19 Listed $849,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,055 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.