410 County Road 070 · Sam Rayburn, TX 75951

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1995 0.73 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on . 732 acres with mature trees, this 1,216 square foot manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Enjoy a front patio, covered back patio, fenced backyard, and two storage buildings with attached carports. With no HOA, there is ample space for boats, RVs, trailers, and other recreational vehicles. All appliances convey, including the refrigerator, washer, dryer, and microwave. Near the entrance to the neighborhood, the Angelina River boat ramp is directly across the street, providing access to the water. Sam Rayburn Lake, Sam Rayburn Dam, and public boat launches are just minutes away, making this property ideal for fishing, boating, and outdoor enthusiasts. Many public

Key facts

• Front patio
• Covered back patio
• Attached carports

Tags

• FRONT PATIO
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE BUILDINGS
• ATTACHED CARPORTS
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 4 spaces; Detached garage; Driveway; Additional parking; RV access/parking; Boat parking; Golf cart garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Corner lot; Cleared and wooded lot
• Construction: Built in 1995; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Storage; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jasper H S (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 681 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.15%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,153
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $31,164
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $952

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$1,978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$616
• After-tax cash flow: $3,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $95,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.