2433 Pennsylvania Ave · Flint, MI
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 96°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.1/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$19,999
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
Key facts
- Surrounded by trees
- Fenced in back yard
- Corner lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $20k).
- Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 36.3% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
- Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 2253% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
- Current owner paid $550; list at $20k implies a 3536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 4.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 36.26%
- Cash-on-cash
- 107.03%
- DSCR
- 5.76
- GRM
- 2.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $25,080
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1734 Missouri Ave | 0.42mi | 2/1.0 | 660 (0%) | 4mo | $30,000 | $45 | 77 |
| 2613 Pennsylvania Ave | 0.07mi | 2/1.0 | 745 (+13%) | 3mo | $16,000 | $21 | 73 |
| 2609 Pennsylvania Ave | 0.07mi | 2/1.0 | 745 (+13%) | 8mo | $28,000 | $38 | 69 |
| 2209 Kentucky Ave | 0.18mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 624 (-6%) | 12mo | $19,000 | $30 | 67 |
| 2510 Bennett Ave | 0.41mi | 2/1.0 | 700 (+6%) | 5mo | $8,500 | $12 | 67 |
| 2001 N Lynch St | 0.32mi | 2/1.0 | 724 (+10%) | 12mo | $25,500 | $35 | 59 |
| 2002 Branch Rd | 0.55mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 628 (-5%) | 3mo | $30,000 | $48 | 58 |
| 2401 Kansas Ave | 0.21mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 744 (+13%) | 10mo | $6,500 | $9 | 56 |
| 3201 Holly Ave | 0.67mi | 2/1.0 | 680 (+3%) | 12mo | $65,000 | $96 | 53 |
| 2002 Kentucky Ave | 0.32mi | 2/1.0 | 576 (-13%) | 16mo | $18,500 | $32 | 51 |
| 2426 Maryland Ave | 0.73mi | 2/1.0 | 712 (+8%) | 2mo | $36,000 | $51 | 51 |
| 2116 Branch Rd | 0.62mi | 2/1.0 | 735 (+11%) | 8mo | $30,000 | $41 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 6.11×
- Total profit
- $28,599
- Equity at exit
- $2,982
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 12.78×
- Total profit
- $65,987
- Equity at exit
- $1,729
Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48506
- Active inventory
- 202
- Price-to-rent
- 2.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $843 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$105
- Tax from tax record
- −$54 /mo · $643/yr
- Insurance
- −$8
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$177
- Net cashflow
- $499
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $5,000
- Closing costs
- $600
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2621 Churchill Ave Flint, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 736 | $795 | $1.08 | 14d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 1553 Illinois Ave Flint, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 702 | $900 | $1.28 | 21d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 3202 Western Rd Flint, MI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 500 | $645 | $1.29 | 14d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 902 Burlington Dr Flint, MI | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $998 | $1.17 | 14d | 4 | 1.25mi |
Listing history 24 events
-
2026-05-20price $825
-
2026-05-09$850
-
2026-04-15status Pending 423-char remark
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-04-15status Pending
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-04-08price $19,999 423-char remark
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-04-08price $19,999
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-04-05price $21,500 423-char remark
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-04-05price $21,500
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-03-25price $23,000 423-char remark
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-03-25price $23,000
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-03-12$28,000 Active 423-char remark
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2026-03-12$28,000 Active
Show marketing remark (423 chars)
Pictures are from when home was preoccupied, Home was lived in and pics are for reference . Good bones house on a corner lot, Fenced in Back yard. Garage will need to be fixed or tore down. cash only and price reflects condition Agent Owned Vacant and can close quickly HOUSE IS SURROUNDED BY TREES ON CORNER LOT, PIC IS PRIOR TO TREES GROWING Pics added of current condition 3/24. Price reduced $5,000 to reflect condition
-
2015-01-07soldstatus $550 830-char remark
Show marketing remark (830 chars)
TENANTS MOVE RIGHT IN AND HAVE THREE WEEKS IN DECEMBER FREE! WATER IS INCLUDED UP TO $50 MONTHLY! LAWN MOWING INCLUDED IN RENT!(Dec 10-31 is free if lease is signed and funds paid by 12/7)No evictions, No collections for utilities. 1ST MONTH RENT PLUS 1 MONTH DEPOSIT ON APPROVED CREDITDue to the weather and people tracking snow through the house for showings, the carpet will be installed once lease is signed and deposit made. Hard wood floors were just redone in living room, new carpet is to be installed in both bedrooms and hallway. New laminate in both kitchen and bath, home was freshly painted. Garage will be painted when the weather improves and also re-shingled. A few odds and ends will be done also regarding trim along walls etcFront porch will have new carpet installed as soon as the weather improvesAgent owned
-
2014-12-03$550 830-char remark
Show marketing remark (830 chars)
TENANTS MOVE RIGHT IN AND HAVE THREE WEEKS IN DECEMBER FREE! WATER IS INCLUDED UP TO $50 MONTHLY! LAWN MOWING INCLUDED IN RENT!(Dec 10-31 is free if lease is signed and funds paid by 12/7)No evictions, No collections for utilities. 1ST MONTH RENT PLUS 1 MONTH DEPOSIT ON APPROVED CREDITDue to the weather and people tracking snow through the house for showings, the carpet will be installed once lease is signed and deposit made. Hard wood floors were just redone in living room, new carpet is to be installed in both bedrooms and hallway. New laminate in both kitchen and bath, home was freshly painted. Garage will be painted when the weather improves and also re-shingled. A few odds and ends will be done also regarding trim along walls etcFront porch will have new carpet installed as soon as the weather improvesAgent owned
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2014-10-14soldstatus $4,750
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2014-10-14soldstatus $4,750
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2014-10-01historical
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2014-08-25$6,000
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2014-08-25$6,000
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2001-10-09soldstatus $37,000
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2001-10-09soldstatus $37,000
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2001-09-17historical
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2001-07-10$36,900
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2001-07-10$36,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $643 · $54/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $643 · $54/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $10,120
- − Mortgage interest
- −$1,120
- − Property taxes
- −$643
- − Insurance
- −$100
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$810
- − Management
- −$810
- − Depreciation
- −$582
- Taxable income
- $6,056
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,453
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,540/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Flint School District
- NCES district ID
- 2614520
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 13% ▲ 3.00%
- Median HH income
- $25,954
- Composite
- 10.97/100
- National rank
- #14642
- State rank
- #714 of 760 in MI
Livability — Flint
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #196
- US rank
- #4946
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Flint, MI
- County
- Genesee County · 221,329 people
- City population
- 93,814
- Metro
- Flint, MI
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,712
- Household income
- $47,929
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 954.0
Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 381,312 people
- By 2030
- 362,731 · -4.9%
- By 2040
- 321,550 · -15.7%
- By 2050
- 279,212 · -26.8%
- By 2075
- 193,336 · -49.3%
- By 2100
- 128,118 · -66.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (76%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 76% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Genesee
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -173.31%
- Current HPI
- 90.0494
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Flint, MI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
||
| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
|
||
| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
|
||
| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
||
| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
|
||
Price history
-45.8% since first listed24 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-20 Price Changed $825 TURBOTENANT
- 2026-05-09 Listed for Rent $850 TURBOTENANT
- 2026-04-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-15 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2026-04-08 Price Changed $19,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-08 Price Changed $19,999 REALCOMP
- 2026-04-05 Price Changed $21,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-05 Price Changed $21,500 REALCOMP
- 2026-03-25 Price Changed $23,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-03-25 Price Changed $23,000 REALCOMP
- 2026-03-12 Listed $28,000 REALCOMP
- 2026-03-12 Listed $28,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2015-01-07 Sold (MLS) $550 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2014-12-03 Listed $550 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2014-10-14 Sold (MLS) $4,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2014-10-14 Sold (MLS) $4,750 REALCOMP
- 2014-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2014-08-25 Listed $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2014-08-25 Listed $6,000 REALCOMP
- 2001-10-09 Sold (MLS) $37,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2001-10-09 Sold (MLS) $37,000 REALCOMP
- 2001-09-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2001-07-10 Listed $36,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2001-07-10 Listed $36,900 REALCOMP
Property tax history
+1.9%/yrLatest (2025): $643 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…