587 Bayshore Dr · Ellenton, FL 34222

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 175 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2026 Fair condition $49/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active, and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a rare opportunity for you with expansive lake views, open floor plan 2021 home, (2-bedroom, 2-bath) for sale featuring 1,334 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Located in Ellenton FL, this abode offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. From the large front porch with river views, step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high coffered ceilings, and upgraded appliances.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lake views
• Dual vanities

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• OPEN AIR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 4.9% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.77%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,000
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -61.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Meadow Cir	0.81mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-2%)	2mo	$219,900	$160	55
73 Whipporwill Ct	0.93mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-4%)	0mo	$205,000	$152	53
17 Meadowlark Cir	0.92mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	50
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.83mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	6mo	$140,000	$104	49
180 Nightingale Cir	1.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (+7%)	2mo	$214,900	$143	46
51 Partridge Ave	0.90mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-6%)	4mo	$233,000	$177	46
179 Nightingale Cir	1.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$165,000	$128	44
76 Eagle Cir	0.90mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-8%)	6mo	$125,000	$96	43
158 Nightingale Cir	1.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-8%)	5mo	$185,000	$144	42
3505 Patricia Pl	1.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-10%)	2mo	$184,375	$146	42
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$125,000	$100	40
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.97mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (+14%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $46,037
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $113,838
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 38.2 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $191,250 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $946	-5% $922	+0% $898	+5% $874	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $760	-5% $829	+0% $898	+5% $967	+10% $1,035
Rate	-1.0pp $933	-0.5pp $916	base $898	+0.5pp $880	+1.0pp $862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Endhoven St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,499	$1.11	0d	1	0.35mi
205 S Utrecht St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,599	$1.10	0d	1	0.36mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	98d	1	0.38mi
482 Outer Dr Unit 1 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,200	$1.55	9d	1	0.38mi
311 Holland St Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,499	$0.96	0d	1	0.41mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,726	$1.73	87d	1	0.56mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	81d	1	0.74mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,495	$1.31	71d	1	0.74mi
5117 Tidewater Preserve Blvd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1731	$3,395	$1.96	9d	1	0.97mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	119d	1	1.13mi
6509 Grand Estuary Trl Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1297	$4,000	$3.08	81d	1	1.19mi
6411 Grand Estuary Trl #401 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,325	$2.01	65d	1	1.19mi
6812 Coconut Grove Cir Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	81d	1	1.20mi
6519 Grand Estuary Trl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,000	$2.60	119d	2	1.21mi
6611 Grand Estuary Trl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,350	$1.51	119d	2	1.23mi
6611 Grand Estuary Trl #204 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,500	$1.60	111d	1	1.24mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	116d	1	1.24mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,270	$3.43	62d	61	1.24mi
6705 Grand Estuary Trl #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,500	$1.60	65d	1	1.25mi
6715 Grand Estuary Trl #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1600	$5,800	$3.62	0d	1	1.27mi
6614 Grand Estuary Trl #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,200	$1.79	119d	1	1.29mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,379	$2.07	0d	54	1.29mi
6819 Grand Estuary Trl #205 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,499	$1.60	119d	1	1.31mi
7005 River Hammock Dr #305 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,500	$2.23	119d	1	1.31mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$5,000	$2.86	9d	1	1.32mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	119d	1	1.34mi
7015 River Hammock Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,322	$1.89	81d	2	1.34mi
7015 River Hammock Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$3,398	$2.77	3d	1	1.34mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	78d	1	1.34mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	110d	1	1.37mi
7019 River Hammock Dr #404 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,000	$1.78	65d	1	1.38mi
7121 River Hammock Dr #303 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,500	$2.03	9d	1	1.42mi
7121 River Hammock Dr Unit 1546059P Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,903	$2.52	111d	1	1.42mi
7121 River Hammock Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,248	$1.91	119d	2	1.43mi
6627 Candlestick Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$5,500	$3.57	119d	1	1.45mi
6110 9th Avenue Cir NE Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	119d	1	1.48mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	119d	1	1.48mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,025	$1.62	9d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,000

Exterior

• Home design: Spec inventory home — Casa Marina plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,404

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-07-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-07-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-29
   days on market $69,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-28
   days on market $69,000 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-27
   days on market $69,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-27
   days on market $69,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-25
   days on market $69,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,000 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-18
    days on market $69,000 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-06-17
    days on market $69,000 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-06-16
    days on market $69,000 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-06-15
    days on market $69,000 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-06-13
    days on market $69,000 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-06-13
    days on market $69,000 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-06-10
    days on market $69,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $69,000 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $10,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,469
• After-tax cash flow: $8,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,020–$21,060 screening

This home, located in a 55+ age-qualified community, offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation. Painting, HVAC service, and landscaping improvements can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint touch-ups — Paint appears to be in good condition but could use touch-ups.
• Moderate Exterior repainting — Exterior siding looks weathered and could benefit from repainting.
• Minor HVAC service check — No visible issues, but the unit may need a service check.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both HVAC service and potential upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blackburn Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,000

Exterior

• Home design: Spec inventory home — Casa Marina plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,404