4000 Pierce St #168 · Riverside, CA 92505

$128,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1976 $111/sqft · 6% below area Est $136k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the well maintained, gated 55+ community of Riverside Meadows, this move in ready home offers a comfortable and efficient layout with 2 bedrooms, a versatile office, 2 bathrooms, and indoor laundry. Recent upgrades include a newer roof, refreshed skirting, dual pane windows, laminate flooring, and an updated kitchen with granite countertops. Residents enjoy a variety of amenities, including a fitness center, game room, library, billiards, heated pool, indoor spa, crafts room with ceramic kiln, and shuffleboard courts. Conveniently located near Kaiser Hospital, Tyler Mall, the 91 Freeway, and Metrolink, with nearby RTA bus stops for easy commuting. Riverside Meadows requires at le

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1976
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Body type: Double; Directions: Once entering park make a left on chestnut
• Financial info: Land lease (monthly) — $1,150 (seller provided source); Rent includes pool
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community features: Dog park, sidewalks; Park name: Meadows; Manager approval required; Pets: Call

Exterior

• Parking: Private carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Mobile home remains on site; Model: Unknown
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Shed; Yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Bathtub and shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Balcony; Ceiling fan; Living room deck attached; Storage space; Granite counters; Double pane windows; Gated community; Community spa/pool access
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.0% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#337 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Alvord Unified (urban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #852 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $128k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.33%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,959
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: -5.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Pierce St #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+1%)	18mo	$138,000	$119	83
3883 Buchanan St #65	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$22,000	$19	79
4000 Pierce St #60	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	9mo	$120,000	$96	79
4000 Pierce St #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	13mo	$141,000	$113	75
4000 Pierce St #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	24mo	$99,000	$79	66
4000 Pierce St #58	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	22mo	$139,000	$132	62
3663 Buchanan St #15	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$150,000	$130	59
4000 Pierce St #232	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+15%)	20mo	$125,000	$95	53
3663 Buchanan St #106	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	8mo	$172,000	$163	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $58,016
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $163,545
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92505

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $1,175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3957 Pierce St Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,795	$3.31	2d	31	0.26mi
11711 Collett Ave Riverside, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$3,229	$3.17	2d	21	0.36mi
4408 Ambs Dr Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$3,040	$2.07	44d	1	0.47mi
2930 Via Milano Outside Area (Inside Ca), CA	1.0	2.0	1007	$2,500	$2.48	44d	1	0.63mi
11520 Magnolia Ave Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$2,634	$3.09	2d	7	0.71mi
4259 Redstar Ct Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1178	$3,000	$2.55	20d	1	0.91mi
4259 Redstar Ct Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1178	$3,000	$2.55	5d	1	0.91mi
4259 Redstar Ct Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1178	$3,000	$2.55	15d	1	0.91mi
4259 Redstar Ct Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1178	$3,000	$2.55	24d	1	0.91mi
11255 Magnolia Ave Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	744	$1,850	$2.49	44d	1	0.96mi
4655 Sierra Vista Ave Riverside, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1043	$2,536	$2.43	2d	11	0.99mi
11207 Magnolia Ave Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	24d	1	1.00mi
545 Hamilton Dr Corona, CA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	24d	1	1.00mi
4725 Sierra Vista Ave Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$2,882	$3.67	3d	10	1.00mi
3900 Fir Tree Dr Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	789	$2,695	$3.42	2d	6	1.06mi
3741 Harvill Ln Unit 4 Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	44d	1	1.13mi
3935 La Sierra Ave Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	747	$2,288	$3.06	2d	11	1.19mi
2365 Promenade Ave Corona, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,557	$2.87	2d	18	1.25mi
4301 La Sierra Ave Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	833	$2,335	$2.80	3d	1	1.26mi
3850 Skofstad St Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,135	$2.43	24d	2	1.28mi
4655 Minnier Ave Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,014	$2.37	44d	1	1.33mi
3855 Skofstad St Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	13d	3	1.34mi
2361 Mary Helen St Unit 102 Corona, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	2d	1	1.37mi
2341 Mary Helen St Unit 104 Corona, CA	3.0	2.5	1000	$2,550	$2.55	44d	1	1.38mi
3713 Calle Curacso Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,090	$2.38	44d	1	1.39mi
3713 Calle Curacso Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,090	$2.38	17d	1	1.39mi
2235 Treehouse Ln Corona, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,770	$3.12	2d	17	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $128,000 Active 794-char remark
16. 2025-04-30
    historical
17. 2025-03-31
    price $148,000
18. 2025-02-01
    price $165,000
19. 2025-01-31
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2021-02-19
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed Sale
21. 2021-01-10
    status Pending Sale
22. 2020-12-13
    price $75,000
23. 2020-10-02
    status Active
24. 2020-09-24
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2020-08-21
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 92% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $12,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,077
• After-tax cash flow: $11,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvord Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602430
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 33.81/100
• National rank: #10383
• State rank: #852 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #11613

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 367,890
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,419
• Household income: $84,906
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1940.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 20% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 47% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -379.14%
• Current HPI: 405.3408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $128,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $148,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-19 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-12-13 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-09-24 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $80,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $122 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.