11 Miller Ln · Clintondale, NY 12561

$165,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 256 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1965 1.21 ac lot $645/sqft · 38% above area Est $327k · 50% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's an opportunity for ownership. Located on a town maintained dead end road but only minutes to all amenities in the Village of New Paltz. This one bedroom manufactured home has all the conveniences to make it a great weekend retreat or simply living off the grid. The living room and kitchen are spacious. The almost one acre yard allows for plenty of room to grow the home bigger or build another. Attached to the home is a second level which was used as additional living space. All systems are running and in place to move right in. There is plenty of storage space with the detached garage/shed and a second shed. Home is ready for a rebuild, expansion or remove and put a new manufactured home.

Key facts

• Second shed
• Over one acre yard
• Detached garage shed

Tags

• TOWN MAINTAINED DEAD END ROAD
• OVER ONE ACRE YARD
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE
• DETACHED GARAGE SHED
• SECOND SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Manufactured house; Mobile home with land
• Construction: Fuel tank(s)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Back yard; Front yard; Cleared lot; Landscaped; Level lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Fuel tank(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-156/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in Clintondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#732 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duzine School (317 students, 27% FRL); New Paltz Middle School (math 24% / reading 74%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 421 students, 28% FRL); New Paltz Senior High School (math 97% / reading 100%, grade A+, #10 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 668 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $154,249 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,774
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -49.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,485
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,675
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12561

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $162,707

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $165,000 Active 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    Here's an opportunity for ownership. Located on a town maintained dead end road but only minutes to all amenities in the Village of New Paltz. This one bedroom manufactured home has all the conveniences to make it a great weekend retreat or simply living off the grid. The living room and kitchen are spacious. The almost one acre yard allows for plenty of room to grow the home bigger or build another. Attached to the home is a second level which was used as additional living space. All systems are running and in place to move right in. There is plenty of storage space with the detached garage/shed and a second shed. Home is ready for a rebuild, expansion or remove and put a new manufactured home.

15. 2026-05-12
    listed $165,000 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    Here's an opportunity for ownership. Located on a town maintained dead end road but only minutes to all amenities in the Village of New Paltz. This one bedroom manufactured home has all the conveniences to make it a great weekend retreat or simply living off the grid. The living room and kitchen are spacious. The almost one acre yard allows for plenty of room to grow the home bigger or build another. Attached to the home is a second level which was used as additional living space. All systems are running and in place to move right in. There is plenty of storage space with the detached garage/shed and a second shed. Home is ready for a rebuild, expansion or remove and put a new manufactured home.

16. 2026-04-22
    historical
17. 2025-11-24
    price $175,000
18. 2025-11-24
    price $175,000
19. 2025-10-21
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2025-10-21
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,570 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,570 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$693
• After-tax cash flow: $538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Paltz Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620460
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▲ 28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,223
• Composite: 67.25/100
• National rank: #386
• State rank: #70 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clintondale

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #732
• US rank: #13975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,531

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.50%
• Current HPI: 331.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $175,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listed $185,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,570 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.