20019 Sterling Meadow Ct · Houston, TX 77449

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 368 Days on market

Built 2003 6,351 sqft lot $117/sqft · 11% below area Est $297k · 11% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3–4 bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a fantastic layout with all bedrooms located upstairs, making it perfect for families or rental prospects. Featuring a generous living area, a large game room or potential 4th bedroom, and an open-concept kitchen with a breakfast nook, this property has tons of potential. While it needs some light rehab work, the structure is solid and the layout desirable—just a bit of TLC will make this home shine. With cosmetic updates, this home could become a beautiful owner-occupied property or a strong addition to any investment portfolio. Located in a well-established neighborhood in Katy zoned to Katy ISD, close to schools, shopping, and major highways. A great opportunity for investors or handy homeowners looking to add value in a growing area. Don’t miss out on this Katy fixer-upper gem—schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Close to schools
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• ZONED TO KATY ISD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duryea El (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 827 students, 83% FRL); Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,073 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,542
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -10.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20014 Goldlake Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,031 (-11%)	2mo	$299,900	$148	76
6810 Enchanted Crest Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,434 (+7%)	3mo	$264,900	$109	74
6822 Eagle Ridge Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,373 (+4%)	2mo	$298,000	$126	71
19843 Portlick Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+0%)	2mo	$289,900	$127	69
6746 Windy River Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,152 (-5%)	3mo	$255,000	$118	68
6810 Creek Village Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,055 (-10%)	5mo	$249,900	$122	64
19514 Azalea Valley Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (+8%)	6mo	$284,990	$116	53
19639 Billineys Park Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,383 (+5%)	4mo	$275,000	$115	52
6635 Barker Bend Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,062 (-9%)	3mo	$267,000	$129	50
20203 Sendera Oaks Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,040 (-10%)	4mo	$239,900	$118	48
20506 Fairworth Place Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,467 (+8%)	4mo	$229,900	$93	43
20550 Cypress Gully Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (-12%)	5mo	$264,900	$132	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,418
• Equity at exit: $60,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,971
• Equity at exit: $60,695

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,469/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $204,073

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-270	+0% $-345	+5% $-420	+10% $-495
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-432	+0% $-345	+5% $-258	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-277	base $-345	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	58	0.33mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,976	$1.14	1d	1	0.42mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	14d	1	0.49mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	4d	1	0.50mi
19815 Blushdawn Sierra Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2590	$2,050	$0.79	26d	1	0.52mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	45d	1	0.53mi
6610 Gorton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2481	$750	$0.30	4d	1	0.60mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	23d	1	0.63mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	21d	1	0.66mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	6d	1	0.87mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	0.90mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	0.94mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	1d	41	0.96mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	45d	1	1.01mi
7830 Ashland Springs Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2352	$1,974	$0.84	22d	1	1.03mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	1.04mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	45d	1	1.11mi
19758 Crossfalls Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,070	$0.96	46d	1	1.18mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	45d	1	1.21mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	1.21mi
19802 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,745	$1.09	45d	1	1.22mi
21014 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,953	$1.19	45d	1	1.25mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	45d	1	1.25mi
21046 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$3,045	$1.22	45d	1	1.25mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	45d	1	1.30mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	14d	21	1.31mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	45d	1	1.40mi
6331 Scotchwood Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$1,681	$1.04	7d	1	1.46mi
21415 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2514	$3,000	$1.19	45d	1	1.48mi
18531 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,799	$1.06	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 368 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2026-02-03
    price $275,000 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    This spacious 3–4 bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a fantastic layout with all bedrooms located upstairs, making it perfect for families or rental prospects. Featuring a generous living area, a large game room or potential 4th bedroom, and an open-concept kitchen with a breakfast nook, this property has tons of potential. While it needs some light rehab work, the structure is solid and the layout desirable—just a bit of TLC will make this home shine. With cosmetic updates, this home could become a beautiful owner-occupied property or a strong addition to any investment portfolio. Located in a well-established neighborhood in Katy zoned to Katy ISD, close to schools, shopping, and major highways. A great opportunity for investors or handy homeowners looking to add value in a growing area. Don’t miss out on this Katy fixer-upper gem—schedule a tour today!

17. 2025-06-18
    listed $310,000 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    This spacious 3–4 bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a fantastic layout with all bedrooms located upstairs, making it perfect for families or rental prospects. Featuring a generous living area, a large game room or potential 4th bedroom, and an open-concept kitchen with a breakfast nook, this property has tons of potential. While it needs some light rehab work, the structure is solid and the layout desirable—just a bit of TLC will make this home shine. With cosmetic updates, this home could become a beautiful owner-occupied property or a strong addition to any investment portfolio. Located in a well-established neighborhood in Katy zoned to Katy ISD, close to schools, shopping, and major highways. A great opportunity for investors or handy homeowners looking to add value in a growing area. Don’t miss out on this Katy fixer-upper gem—schedule a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,469 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,469 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,469
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $310,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,469 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.