4127 Lavon Dr · Farmersville, TX 75442

$248,889

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $161/sqft · 6% below area Est $265k · 6% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this brand-new, energy-efficient home in the sought-after Lakehaven master-planned community near Lavon Lake. The spacious Carlsbad plan one-story offers four bedrooms with a flexible layout designed to fit your lifestyle. Enjoy a bright, modern interior featuring white cabinetry, white quartz countertops, light beige flooring, and light taupe carpet for a warm, contemporary feel. The open-concept design creates seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. Built with innovative energy-efficient features, this home delivers comfort, savings, and peace of mind. Enjoy exceptional amenities, including a resort-style pool, children’s splash area, basketball court, fitness center, and more. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home blends style, efficiency, and vibrant community living. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your private tour today and see this stunning new home!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Fitness center
• Basketball court

Tags

• ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOME
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• CHILDREN’S SPLASH AREA
• BASKETBALL COURT
• FITNESS CENTER
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Farmersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#425 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Farmersville ISD (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #298 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 415 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,594 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,923
• List price: $248,889
• Delta: -6.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4127 Lavon Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	1mo	$248,889	$161	99
4013 Worth Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	2mo	$244,389	$158	93
3114 Texoma Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	3mo	$234,889	$152	92
3150 Texoma Blvd	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	2mo	$250,889	$162	92
3110 Texoma Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-5%)	1mo	$242,190	$164	80
4012 Bass Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	1mo	$262,889	$170	78
3607 Bonham Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	1mo	$261,889	$169	77
3605 Bridgeport Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	2mo	$253,389	$163	76
3611 Bridgeport Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,550 (0%)	1mo	$264,889	$171	76
4009 Joe Pool Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (+7%)	1mo	$265,644	$160	75
4014 Bass Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-3%)	3mo	$250,435	$167	66
3607 Bridgeport Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-3%)	2mo	$234,435	$156	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,867
• Equity at exit: $37,110

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,349
• Equity at exit: $21,519

Cash invested: $69,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75442

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,733/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $229,336

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-49	+0% $-135	+5% $-221	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-218	+0% $-135	+5% $-53	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-72	base $-135	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,222
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3138 Texoma Blvd Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	24d	1	0.16mi
3720 Canyon Dr Farmersville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,150	$1.04	19d	1	0.67mi
3705 Ray Roberts Dr Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,195	$1.22	19d	1	0.68mi
3713 Canyon Dr Farmersville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,150	$1.04	12d	1	0.68mi
3619 Chambers Dr Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,750	$1.33	7d	1	0.69mi
3815 Cisco Dr Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.5	1589	$2,000	$1.26	19d	1	0.78mi
3906 Mill Creek Dr Farmersville, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,095	$1.02	44d	1	0.85mi
3916 White Rock Dr Unit NA Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.5	1585	$1,996	$1.26	44d	1	0.86mi
3916 Nasworthy Dr Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,400	$1.16	1d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 950-char remark

   Show marketing remark (950 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new, energy-efficient home in the sought-after Lakehaven master-planned community near Lavon Lake. The spacious Carlsbad plan one-story offers four bedrooms with a flexible layout designed to fit your lifestyle. Enjoy a bright, modern interior featuring white cabinetry, white quartz countertops, light beige flooring, and light taupe carpet for a warm, contemporary feel. The open-concept design creates seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. Built with innovative energy-efficient features, this home delivers comfort, savings, and peace of mind. Enjoy exceptional amenities, including a resort-style pool, children’s splash area, basketball court, fitness center, and more. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home blends style, efficiency, and vibrant community living. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your private tour today and see this stunning new home!

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $248,889 Active 950-char remark

   Show marketing remark (950 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new, energy-efficient home in the sought-after Lakehaven master-planned community near Lavon Lake. The spacious Carlsbad plan one-story offers four bedrooms with a flexible layout designed to fit your lifestyle. Enjoy a bright, modern interior featuring white cabinetry, white quartz countertops, light beige flooring, and light taupe carpet for a warm, contemporary feel. The open-concept design creates seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. Built with innovative energy-efficient features, this home delivers comfort, savings, and peace of mind. Enjoy exceptional amenities, including a resort-style pool, children’s splash area, basketball court, fitness center, and more. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home blends style, efficiency, and vibrant community living. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your private tour today and see this stunning new home!

3. 2026-04-05
   historical
4. 2026-02-23
   listed $248,889 Active
5. 2026-02-19
   historical
6. 2026-02-18
   price $248,889
7. 2026-02-17
   price $280,389
8. 2026-01-23
   price $248,889
9. 2026-01-05
   price $253,889
10. 2025-12-22
    price $252,889
11. 2025-12-18
    price $257,889
12. 2025-11-24
    price $252,889
13. 2025-10-17
    price $255,389
14. 2025-10-07
    price $270,389
15. 2025-09-16
    listed $270,889 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$3,733
• − Insurance: −$1,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,240
• Taxable loss: −$5,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior, modern interior, and energy-efficient features. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping and shrubbery — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping and shrubbery — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmersville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819080
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,626
• Composite: 37.17/100
• National rank: #4479
• State rank: #298 of 826 in TX

Livability — Farmersville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #8723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 10,805
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,805
• Household income: $95,250
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.67%
• Current HPI: 304.6738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $248,889 NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $248,889 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $248,889 NTREIS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $280,389 NTREIS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $248,889 NTREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $253,889 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $252,889 NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $257,889 NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $252,889 NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $255,389 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $270,389 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $270,889 NTREIS