1220 Sugar Loaf Rd · Pigeon Forge, TN 37876

$365,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2008 0.78 ac lot $317/sqft · 16% below area Est $434k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Country Cabin Near the Great Smoky Mountains - Sleeps 6 Discover this cozy and inviting 2-story cabin nestled in a peaceful country setting in Sevierville, just minutes from the attractions of the Great Smoky Mountains. Perfectly situated off the beaten path, this property offers both privacy and convenience--ideal as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or short-term rental investment. This unique cabin comfortably sleeps up to 6 and features 1 spacious bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and 1 half bath, along with an open and airy two-story layout. The entire upper level serves as a large primary suite, complete with two cozy bed alcoves and two oversized walk-in closets. One closet

Key facts

• Front porch
• Large primary suite
• Two story layout

Tags

• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO OVERSIZED WALK IN CLOSETS
• PRIVATE HOT TUB RETREAT
• FRONT PORCH
• SEASONAL MOUNTAIN SCENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property used as single-family; Has view; Lot size approximately 0.78 acres (approx. dimensions 180.19 x 354.58); Zoned R

Exterior

• Parking: See listing for parking details
• Security: See listing for security details
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical system; Fuel tank(s) on property
• Home design: Residential cabin; Two levels / 2-story; No shared/common walls; Home warranty included
• Construction: Frame construction with log siding
• Exterior features: Back yard and front yard; Sloped lot with views; Gas grill; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop and electric range; Self-cleaning oven; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: See interior for bedroom count and layout
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Laminate counters; Storage space; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window coverings; Electric fireplaces (2)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned); Water purifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-973 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (47.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (58.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (58.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $365k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,937 (58.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.42%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 20.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,596
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
984 Goose Gap Rd #2	0.56mi	1/1.5	1,080 (-6%)	5mo	$432,000	$400	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $132,226
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $429,846
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 20.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $193,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-766	-5% $-870	+0% $-973	+5% $-1,076	+10% $-1,180
Rent	-10% $-1,091	-5% $-1,032	+0% $-973	+5% $-914	+10% $-854
Rate	-1.0pp $-789	-0.5pp $-880	base $-973	+0.5pp $-1,068	+1.0pp $-1,164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $365,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $365,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $385,000 Active 1621-char remark
17. 2025-12-27
    listed $385,900
18. 2025-12-27
    historical
19. 2025-12-27
    historical
20. 2025-08-14
    price $385,900
21. 2025-08-14
    price $385,900
22. 2025-06-28
    price $399,900
23. 2025-06-26
    price $399,900
24. 2025-05-30
    price $409,900
25. 2025-04-19
    price $425,000
26. 2025-04-19
    price $425,000
27. 2025-03-12
    price $449,000
28. 2025-03-12
    price $449,000
29. 2025-03-10
    status Active
30. 2025-03-09
    listed $475,000 Active
31. 2025-02-28
    listed $475,000 Active
32. 2021-05-27
    soldstatus $212,000
33. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus $85,000
34. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus $85,000
35. 2011-01-13
    listed $92,500
36. 2010-07-08
    listed $99,900
37. 2010-01-07
    listed $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,592 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,496/yr (+$125/mo · 136.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$18,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• City population: 21,767
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+234.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $365,000 GSMAR
• 2026-05-02 Listed $385,000 GSMAR
• 2025-12-27 Listed $385,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $385,900 GSMAR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $385,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $399,900 GSMAR
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $399,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $409,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $425,000 GSMAR
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $425,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $449,000 GSMAR
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $449,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-10 Relisted — GSMAR
• 2025-03-09 Listed $475,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $475,000 GSMAR
• 2021-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 GSMAR
• 2011-01-13 Listed $92,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2010-07-08 Listed $99,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2010-01-07 Listed $109,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.